National Short Range Forecast Discussion
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EDT Mon Aug 02 2021
Valid 00Z Tue Aug 03 2021 - 00Z Thu Aug 05 2021
...Monsoonal showers to bring heavy rains and localized flash flooding
through the Rockies Monday night through Wednesday...
..Heavy rains and flooding possible from the Central Gulf coast,
northeastward across the coastal Southeast and eastern Carolinas...
...Below average temperatures expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley
into the East. Above average temperatures expected from the Southwest
into the Pacific Northwest and eastward into the Northern Plains/Upper
Monsoonal showers will remain active on the northern and eastern
peripheries of the mid to upper level ridge that is building from the
Southwest into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern will support active
monsoonal showers through much of the Rockies from Monday night through
Wednesday. These heavy rains, however, will be to the east of where the
heaviest rains have fallen recently from the Southwest into the Great
Basin. However, with moisture values expected to be above average in the
region of expected monsoonal showers, localized flash flooding is possible
over the next few days through the Rockies. This is especially so in area
of recent burn scars and in regions of steep terrain.
As the mid to upper level ridge builds from the Southwest into the Pacific
Northwest, above average temperatures are expected across these regions
and eastward into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley region.
A frontal boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next
few days from the Gulf coast, across the coastal Southeast and eastern
Carolinas. This front will be the focus for a multi day heavy rain event
as several rounds of potentially heavy rains move along the front where
moisture values are expected to remain much above average. Much of the
region in the vicinity of this stationary front has seen above average
rain totals over the past few weeks. This, along with the potential for
additional heavy rains will pose an increasing threat of flooding and
flash flooding across these regions.
In addition to the heavy rains in the vicinity of the above mentioned
stationary front, temperatures are expected to remain much below average
over the next few days with high temperatures 10-15 degrees colder than
average from North Florida into the Southeast and Carolinas.
A few record low maximum temperatures are possible across portions of the
Southeast over the next 2 days where highs are forecast to remain in the
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php