Point Forecast Updated Wed Aug 10, 2022 1:25am EDT
Most of the scattered showers and thunderstorms across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts will wind down by midnight. A backdoor cold front brings stratus and fog along tonight along with much cooler temperatures Wednesday but humidity remains elevated. A wave of low pressure may bring some showers to mainly Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts Wednesday night into Thursday if it tracks close enough to the coast. Mainly dry weather Friday through Monday with seasonable temperatures and very comfortable humidity. So quite the change from the heat and humidity of the last several weeks!
Slight Chance Rain Showers
Lo 65 °F
A slight chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a low around 65. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Cloudy
Hi 77 °F
A slight chance of rain showers before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Northeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Chance Rain Showers
Lo 61 °F
A chance of rain showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. South wind 2 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Slight Chance Rain Showers
Hi 81 °F
A slight chance of rain showers before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind 2 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
Lo 65 °F
A slight chance of rain showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southwest wind 2 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance Rain Showers
Hi 81 °F
A slight chance of rain showers between 9am and 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Lo 59 °F
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. North wind around 6 mph.
Hi 79 °F
Sunny, with a high near 79. North wind around 6 mph.
Lo 60 °F
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Hi 83 °F
Sunny, with a high near 83. West wind 2 to 7 mph.
Lo 63 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind 2 to 7 mph.
Hi 84 °F
Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. South wind 2 to 8 mph.
Lo 64 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind 2 to 7 mph.
Chance Rain Showers
Hi 81 °F
A chance of rain showers after 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Southeast wind 2 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Updated Wed Aug 10, 2022 1:25am EDT
000 FXUS61 KBOX 100241 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1041 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Most of the scattered showers and thunderstorms across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts will wind down by midnight. A backdoor cold front brings stratus and fog along tonight along with much cooler temperatures Wednesday but humidity remains elevated. A wave of low pressure may bring some showers to mainly Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts Wednesday night into Thursday if it tracks close enough to the coast. Mainly dry weather Friday through Monday with seasonable temperatures and very comfortable humidity. So quite the change from the heat and humidity of the last several weeks! && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 1030 PM UPDATE... Shower and thunderstorm activity has pretty much come to an end across southern New England, except for a few isolated showers across SE MA and southern RI. Nighttime Microphysics show the low stratus coming in from the northeast behind the leading edge of the backdoor cold front. Behind the cold front, NE winds are gusting 15-20 mph and dew points have also dropped by 7-10F, from mid 70s to mid 60s. This cold front will continue to make its way southwestward, and eventually stall south of the MA/RI south coast by the morning hours. Couldn't rule out a few isolated sprinkles or showers alongside patchy fog, but most places will stay dry and cooler and less oppressive conditions will take hold. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 8 PM Update... Isolated to scattered showers/t-storms were still impacting RI/SE MA this evening. MLCapes are still on the order of 1500 J/KG in this region. This coupled with the intersection of a surface cold front to the west and a backdoor cold front approaching from the north were the culprits. The bulk of this activity should diminish by midnight as the main backdoor cold front drops south. However, mid level moisture and west to southwest flow aloft will still allow for widely scattered showers overnight particularly towards southeast New England. A deck of low stratus will invade much of central and eastern New England over the next several hours behind the backdoor cold front. May see some patches of fog too; particularly towards the southeast New England coast right behind the backdoor cold front. We also may see some stratus too across western MA/northern CT overnight too. Low temps will be noticeably cooler than what we have experienced of late. Overnight lows should bottom out in the 60s to near 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Highlights * Much cooler in wake of the cold front, but will have to deal with more clouds than sunshine at least for the first half of the day. * Could potentially see some showers spreading in late on Wednesday and Wednesday night as a low rides along the front to our south, but confidence is quite low at this point. Still under cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes and New England Wednesday into Wednesday night, but will have a deeper trough digging into the Great Lakes late on Wednesday. A weak high builds into the region on Wednesday, but will have a frontal boundary around/south of the region. A low may ride along this front and push toward us bringing rain chances late on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Main change in the latest update was to dial back precipitation chances on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Have some concerns that the low develops along the front, but remains too far offshore to bring us precip. A very big change amongst guidance from yesterday with most models shutting us up precip wise until perhaps Thursday. Given the big shift have just dialed back things a bit at this point especially given the ARW/FV3 guidance. Risk is going to be the highest across the south coast, where could have PWATS approaching 2 inches. Will need to see how things evolve with future model runs. Will have onshore flow for much of Wednesday, which will keep high temps in the mid 70s to the mid 80s. May take a bit for the low clouds/stratus to lift. At the moment have it lifting during the afternoon, but could be tough given the persistent onshore flow. Low temperatures will be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights... * Some showers may impact mainly RI/SE MA into Thursday "If" a wave of low pressure tracks close enough to the south coast * Generally dry weather Fri through Mon with a pattern change to seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity Details... Thursday... We will need to keep an eye on a wave of low pressure lifting northeast from the mid-Atlantic states along with a cold front from the west. Somewhat uncertain as to the northward extent of the shower shield associated with the wave of low pressure to our south. Greatest risk for a period of showers will be across RI/SE especially Thu morning, but this could also remain offshore. It is really difficult to forecast the northwest extent of a synoptic QPF field given limited baroclinicity this time of year coupled with any convective processes. Otherwise, the only thing will have to watch is for perhaps some scattered showers and isolated t-storms trying to enter western MA during the evening with the cold front approaching. Dynamics weaken as this moves east so may fall part as it tries to enter southern New England. Highs on Thu will mainly be in the 80s, but perhaps places on the immediate coast may not reach 80. Friday through Monday... The EPS/GEFS are in excellent agreement in an overall pattern change compared to what we have experienced over the last several weeks. Upper level trough sets up over the mid-Atlantic and Northeast States over this time period. This will result in very pleasant weather and comfortable humidity! Mainly dry weather will prevail outside a few spot showers possible with a couple of moisture starved northern stream shortwaves. High temps will mainly be in the lower to middle 80s with perhaps 75 to 80 at times along portions of the immediate coast. Overnight low temps will mainly be in the 50s to the lower 60s. Again though the main story will be the change to cooler/seasonable temps and pleasant humidity. Tuesday... Approaching/digging shortwave may increase the chance for some showers by Tuesday. Still quite the ways in the future, but something to watch in the coming days. Humidity may increase a bit too, but nothing like what we have been experiencing. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00Z TAF Update... Tonight...High confidence in trends, moderate in exact timing. Bulk of isolated to scattered showers/t-storms across RI/SE MA dissipate by midnight, but widely scattered showers will still be possible after that time. Otherwise, main story will be a backdoor cold front which will bring IFR-LIFR ceilings to much of central/eastern New England as the evening wears along and into the overnight hours. Some patches of fog possible especially right behind the cold front near the southeast New England coast. The distance interior probably realizes a period of MVFR ceilings. Winds shift to the NNE at 5 to 10 knots behind the cold front, but will briefly gust stronger along the immediate coast right behind the front. Wednesday...Moderate confidence. MVFR/IFR ceilings slowly improving to VFR. E/NE winds turning to the SE at 5-10 kts. Wednesday night...Low confidence. MVFR to IFR conditions with perhaps some rain showers spreading in toward the south coast. Lots of uncertainty with this activity as a low develops along the frontal boundary nearby. Light SE/S winds perhaps shifting to the SW toward daybreak. KBOS...High confidence in trends moderate in timing of the stratus/fog spreading in for the evening push. KBDL...Moderate confidence in thunderstorm coverage and timing. Could see MVFR stratus spreading in tonight, but lower confidence here. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 00Z...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing. Scattered showers/t-storms dissipate from north to south through 6z. Will have an abrupt wind shift in wake of the front with winds shifting to the N/NE in wake of the front, but out of the SW/W ahead of it this evening. Should see speeds of 10-15 kts with perhaps some brief 20 to 25 knots gusts right behind the front. Will see a surge of low clouds and fog especially across the eastern waters. Lingering small craft headlines across the southern outer-waters for seas should come down in the next few hours. Otherwise, just brief 20-25 knots wind gusts right behind the backdoor cold front over the next several hours but just below headline criteria. Wednesday...High confidence. Winds out of the NE to E at 5-10 kts with seas of 2-4 ft. Wednesday night...Low confidence. Winds out of the E/SE around 5 kts. Should have seas of 2-4 ft, but uncertain on weather. A low will lift along a frontal boundary to the south of the region. This could bring some rain along with embedded thunder late, but also could be a shutout especially for the eastern waters. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .CLIMATE... Record Maximum Temperatures August 9th: BOS 99F  ORH 95F  PVD 100F  BDL 102F  && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frank/BL NEAR TERM...Frank/Chai SHORT TERM...BL LONG TERM...Frank AVIATION...Frank/BL MARINE...Frank/BL CLIMATE...
Zone forecast: https://api.weather.gov/zones/forecast/MAZ014/forecast
Hourly forecast: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/64,78/forecast/hourly
Hourly detail: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/64,78
Point detail: https://api.weather.gov/points/42.435,-71.2461