Point Forecast Updated Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:11am EDT
A developing strong coastal storm will bring the potential for heavy rain, flooding, and damaging winds into Wednesday. Much quieter and mainly dry weather returns Thursday into at least part of Friday. Another system will likely bring more rain to our region late Friday into Saturday, but it does not look near as strong or impactful. Dry weather returns sometime Sunday, and probably continues into next Monday with temperatures averaging a bit above normal.
Hi 59 °F
Rain and patchy fog and isolated thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 59. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Lo 47 °F
Rain and patchy fog. Cloudy, with a low around 47. North wind 21 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 52 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Light Rain Likely
Hi 52 °F
Rain likely and patchy fog. Cloudy, with a high near 52. North wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Slight Chance Light Rain then Mostly Cloudy
Lo 45 °F
A slight chance of rain before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Hi 55 °F
Partly sunny, with a high near 55. North wind 9 to 13 mph.
Lo 44 °F
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind around 8 mph.
Rain Showers Likely
Hi 56 °F
Rain showers likely after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. Northeast wind 7 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Rain Showers Likely
Lo 50 °F
Rain showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 50. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain Showers Likely
Hi 61 °F
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Chance Rain Showers
Lo 51 °F
A chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind 2 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance Rain Showers
Hi 62 °F
A chance of rain showers before 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. West wind 2 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Lo 47 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. West wind around 7 mph.
Hi 61 °F
Sunny, with a high near 61. West wind 7 to 10 mph.
Lo 43 °F
Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. West wind 3 to 7 mph.
Updated Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:11am EDT
000 FXUS61 KBOX 261350 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 950 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A developing strong coastal storm will bring the potential for heavy rain, flooding, and damaging winds into Wednesday. Much quieter and mainly dry weather returns Thursday into at least part of Friday. Another system will likely bring more rain to our region late Friday into Saturday, but it does not look near as strong or impactful. Dry weather returns sometime Sunday, and probably continues into next Monday with temperatures averaging a bit above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 950 AM Update... Forecast is mainly on track, with rain moving northwest across CT and RI...eventually to reach Western MA this afternoon. Additional rain extends south of the Islands. As this moves northwest, expect rain developing later this afternoon in Eastern MA. Low level east flow supported growth of showers that moved into Northeast MA. These are moving north of the border but with additional showers offshore than may move ashore later today. Temperatures range from the upper 40s Central Hills to the mid 60s South Coast. Similar temperatures expected this afternoon. No changes to headlines. Previous Discussion... Today will be all about an approaching low pressure moving north along the coast. This low pressure is expected to arrive later this afternoon. This will be a dynamic system, meaning it will intensify as it approaches. Plenty of ingredients in place to make this happen. This low pressure will be moving underneath a strongly negatively tilted trough, which will help it absorb the energy from a dissipating low pressure over the Mid Atlantic. Wind remains the greatest concern with this event. Strong low level winds remain. Typically with these dynamic systems, they tend to overperform most of the statistical guidance. When compared to prior forecasts, the onset of the strongest winds may be 2-3 hours slower. This was not enough to change the overall messaging of headlines, so those remain unchanged. First round of rainfall this morning is expected to briefly end for some late this morning, before the main low pressure arrives late today. Flood Watches continue unchanged. Still looking at abundant lift and moisture resulting in downpours. Poor-drainage flooding is most likely, but cannot rule out some more significant flooding in spots. Will need to see the impact of the rainfall during this event on area waterways. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Strongest winds expected tonight, then diminishing Wednesday. Synoptic pattern favors a circular departure for this surface low pressure, which will keep it closer to our region longer. Maintained some rainfall chances into Wednesday, especially across the eastern half of southern New England. When all is done, thinking total rainfall with range from about 1.5 inches towards the Berkshires, up to 4 inches in places towards the east coast of MA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Strong wind gusts continue across southeast MA Wed night with lingering coastal flooding concerns * Quieter weather returns Thu into early Fri with generally dry weather other than a few lingering showers Thu across southeast MA * Another system likely brings more rain later Fri and Sat, but should not be nearly as impactful as the Tue/Wed event * Dry weather likely returns sometime Sun and continues into Mon Details... Wednesday night... As the storm system of concern in the short term period exits, lingering wind gusts up to 35-40 mph at times continue overnight Wednesday. The other concern is with the risk of coastal flooding during the high tide cycle due to the cumulative effect of northeast winds over the past few days. Thursday and Friday... The major storm system will have finally lifted well to our northeast by Thursday with brief ridging building in. This coupled with a ridge of high pressure building down from eastern Canada will result in mainly dry weather Thu into early Fri...despite lingering clouds and a few left over showers possible on Thu across southeast MA. This a result of lingering NNE low level flow keeping the 925- 700mb level moist. High temps should mainly be in the 50s Thursday and Friday, except for the CT River valley that may see highs approach 60 degrees since they are more removed from the onshore flow. Average highs for late October across Southern New England are in the mid 50s to low 60s, so we are looking at just below normal to near normal temperatures. So while it is not the nicest of fall weather, it is no washout either and we don't have to deal with strong winds. We do, however, have to see if we get some lighter rain moving in sometime on Fri in advance of the next system over the weekend. While the GFS/CMC keep us dry, but the ECWMF and even some GEFS ensembles indicate onshore moist flow to allow some light rain to break out during the day Friday ahead of the next system. Minor coastal flooding remains a concern for the north and east- facing beaches due to the cumulative effects of northeasterly flow during Thursday's high tide cycle but the effects should subside by Friday. Friday night and Saturday... Another wave of low pressure will approach from the southwest Friday night into Saturday. This will likely bring another round of rain Fri night into Saturday. This system does not look nearly as strong as the Nor'easter mentioned in the short-term discussion. And given its progressive nature, not expecting significant weather impacts at this time other than localized urban and poor drainage flooding as ensemble guidance indicates a broad swath of 1-2 inches of rainfall on top of grounds saturated from the heavy rainfall earlier in the week. Sunday and Monday... There remains some uncertainty whether the rain lingers into Sunday, especially at this time range. We do expect improving weather especially the latter half of Sunday and especially into Monday as ridging builds in and the flow turns westerly, which allows the low- levels to dry out. So expect the return of sunshine along with dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s as we turn the calendar into November. Highs derived from the blended guidance look a tad low but reasonable at this time frame. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. This afternoon and tonight...High confidence. Widespread IFR/LIFR. Periods of rain, heavy at times especially this afternoon through tonight. Increasing NE winds this afternoon, with winds peaking tonight with gusts 50-60 kt east coastal MA and Cape/Islands, 40-50 kt back to I-95 corridor and 25-35 kt CT valley. LLWS across SE MA and Cape Cod Tue night. Wednesday...High confidence. Conditions improving to VFR from west to east during the afternoon. IFR/MVFR likely to longer towards the east coast. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Storm Warnings continue for all waters from this afternoon into Wed morning. Winds ramp up, with worst of the wind and seas tonight. Max wind gusts to 60-65 kt possible over waters east of Cape Cod. Dangerous seas develop, peaking 20-25 ft east of Cape Cod to outer NE MA waters. A dangerous storm for mariners. Vsbys will be reduced in rain and fog. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/... Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 19 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain showers likely. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Rain showers likely. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... * Minor Coastal Flooding, with significant erosion possible The high tides of main concern are the early Wed morning and Wed afternoon tide cycles. Thankfully, astronomical tides are quite low which will limit the magnitude of flooding. A 3 to 3.5 ft surge is possible with seas 20-25 ft offshore which will be enough to produce areas of minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide. We are not as concerned with this afternoon's high tide as the combination of winds, waves and surge will not likely be built enough to cause flooding. However, persistent easterly wind wave over multiple tide cycles may result in areas of significant beach erosion. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for CTZ002>004. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ004. MA...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ007-013>024. Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for MAZ003>021-026. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ005-006-012. RI...High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ005>008. Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for RIZ001>008. Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>004. MARINE...Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ232>235. Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ230-236. Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ231-250. Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ237-251. Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255. Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Chai NEAR TERM...WTB/Belk/Chai SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...Chai AVIATION...WTB/Belk/Chai MARINE...WTB/Belk/Chai TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Zone forecast: https://api.weather.gov/zones/forecast/MAZ014/forecast
Hourly forecast: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/64,78/forecast/hourly
Hourly detail: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/BOX/64,78
Point detail: https://api.weather.gov/points/42.435,-71.2461