Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

12°F

1/24/2025 4:09am

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 11.5°F / -11.4°C
Dew Point: 5.7°F
Relative Humidity: 77%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 30.07 in Steady
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.00 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 240804
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
304 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry conditions will persist through Saturday, then 
turning milder with more seasonable temperatures Sunday into 
Tuesday with blustery conditions at times. While a primarily 
dry period, nuisance showers remain possible Sunday and 
Tuesday. Turning colder behind a cold front Tuesday night into 
Wednesday then another clipper low may bring some light snow 
sometime Wednesday or Wednesday night. Another round of very 
cold and blustery conditions will follow for the end of the 
week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNE will be in between shortwaves today with one shortwave 
moving to the mid Atlc region and another moving into northern 
New Eng. Upper level confluence between these shortwaves along 
with left entrance region of strong upper jet will result in 
large scale subsidence and dry weather today. Expect lots of 
sunshine which will give way to sct-bkn strato-cu this 
afternoon. 925 mb temps are similar to Thu so not much change 
in daytime temps with highs mostly upper 20s to lower 30s. A 
modest W-NW wind 10-15 mph will make it feel a bit colder. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Tonight...

High pres builds over the mid Atlc region with ridging extending 
northward and approaching New Eng. NW  winds will diminish and 
become light which will result in good radiational cooling again
as mainly clear skies expected. Lows will drop into the single 
numbers, but 10-15F near the coast.

Saturday...

Upper low over northern New Eng moves to the east followed by 
shortwave ridging which will provide another dry day. Sunshine 
in the morning will give way to more cloudiness in the afternoon
as mid- high level moisture races in from the west as upper jet
approaches. Low level temps cool a bit so highs will be mostly 
25-30F with NW winds turning W-SW in the afternoon as high pres 
moves off the mid Atlc coast. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages: 

* Benign weather conditions continue Sunday though Tuesday, while a 
  primarily dry forecast, nuisance showers are possible during this 
  period. 

* Periodic west/southwest gusts between 20 and 30 mph are possible 
  on Sunday through Tuesday, due to modest 850mb jet. 

* Near normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday, but the next 
  round of colder weather arrives Wednesday through late next week. 

No significant changes to the extended forecast as we anticipate 
benign weather conditions to end the weekend and continues into the 
first-half of next week. Sunday, weak low pressure associated with a 
subtle mid-level trough and shortwave cross northern New England. As 
mentioned previously, there is not much moisture associated, but the 
west/southwest flow aloft may minimally enhance PWATs along southern 
coast of New England. Opt'd to include low-end 'slight chance' POPs 
for from the eastern tip of Long Island, into coastal Rhode Island, 
and the south coast of Massachusetts; including the islands and the 
south facing shoreline of Cape Cod. Given the WAA, this part of the 
CWA the PType would be rain. Though, into the northern Berkshires 
enough cold air would support PType of snow. Once again, there is 
little moisture associated with this passage, not expecting any 
accumulations or impacts. Additionally, a modest 850mb jet of 35 to 
40 knots is aloft Sunday into Tuesday, leading to periodic gusts up 
to 30 mph from the west/southwest. 

As mentioned previously, there are no significant systems on the 
horizon, yet. While dry weather will prevail, nuisance snow showers 
remain possible into early next week as guidance has signaled the 
last few days of weak and moisture starved clippers moving from 
northern Canada into northern New England. Overnight guidance does 
hint that a mid-week clipper may trend further south and cross 
southern New England late Wednesday into early Thursday. Did notice 
the 00z run of the GFS showed this clipper phasing with a southern 
stream system, which would transport gulf moisture, leading to a 
more robust storm. That said, this deterministic run remains as an 
outlier, 90th percentile snowfall based off the ensembles are less 
than an inch for most locations. Nevertheless, something to watch as 
we head into next week, especially if you would like to have more 
snow. 

Given WAA Sunday, highs recover into the middle and upper 30s, a few 
areas along the coast may push 40F. Heading into early next week, 
Monday and Tuesday, temperatures are near normal, similar to Sunday. 
By mid-week, there are signs that colder air returns and sticks with 
us for the remainder of the week, below normal highs and lows, and 
perhaps sub-freezing Wednesday through Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday...High confidence.

VFR through the period. NW wind around 10 kt today, diminishing
tonight, then becoming W-SW around 10 kt Sat.

KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF. 

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. 

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. 
High- greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday...High Confidence.

W-NW wind 10-20 kt through tonight becoming W Sat afternoon with 
gusts to 20 kt. Seas below SCA.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain. 

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough
seas. 

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas
up to 11 ft. 

Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
10 ft. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Dooley
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...KJC/Dooley
MARINE...KJC/Dooley