Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 210117 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 917 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will result in dry weather Sunday through Tuesday with mild days and cool nights, along with elevated fire weather potential. Unsettled, wet and cool on Wednesday. Turning drier late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 915 PM Update... * Clearing overnight with lows in the 30s to lower 40s * Areas of frost toward daybreak in normally coolest locales The last of the showers were now confined to the Cape/Islands along the advancing cold front. There was even a few rumbles of thunder/graupel with this activity earlier near the south coast. But this activity will exit the Cape/Islands in the next hour or so. As the wind shifts behind the front...the remaining low clouds/fog across the Cape/Islands will scour out over the next few hours. Otherwise...a much drier west to northwest flow of air follows behind the cold front overnight. A brief surge of WNW 20-25 mph immediately behind the front will not last too long. The drier airmass followed by diminishing wind overnight will allow for overnight low temps near 30 across the normally coolest locations of western MA. The rest of the region should see overnight lows mainly between 35 and 40 with lower 40s in the Urban Heat Island of Boston and Nantucket. Patches of frost may also develop toward daybreak in some of the normally coolest low-lying locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure starts to build across southern New England through Sunday night, providing dry weather. Expecting a period of clouds Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak trough passes by. This weak trough will also help generate gusty afternoon west winds. Near to slightly below normal temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights * Very seasonable weather next week with daily high/low temps close to the climatological normal * Rainy on Wednesday Monday through Saturday No anomalous or impactful weather is expected in the extended forecast for southern New England next week. The week begins with the region largely dominated by high pressure building in from the west. This should support a sunny/dry start to the week with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s and lows in the upper 30s/low 40s. The only active period of weather this week will be on Wednesday when a modest short-wave disturbance aloft traverses over the region. Southerly flow ahead of this feature will increase the moisture over southern New England allowing for widespread stratiform precipitation during the day Wednesday. With neither forcing nor moisture forecast to reach impressive levels, the total rainfall accumulation with this system is expected to be modest with amounts likely between 0.1 and 0.25 inches. As the associated surface cold front pushes through the region behind this system Wednesday night, we'll be left with a dry but cooler air mass on Thursday which should feature temperatures only slightly below normal. High pressure then builds over The Northeast to end the week with more dry, quiet, and seasonable conditions. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Sunday Night...High confidence. Any lingering MVFR-IFR conditions across the Cape/Islands clear to VFR this evening. VFR conditions expected into Sunday Night. WNW generally 5-10 knots, shifting to the WSW Sunday at 10 to 15 knots with some afternoon gusts of 20 to 25 kt. Winds turn WNW Sunday night and become less gusty. KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF. A brief period of gusty winds is possible between now (23Z) and 01Z along the leading edge of a surface front moving through southern New England. KBDL registered a 34 knot gust as the front past over the terminal a short while ago. Not expecting gusts quite that strong at BOS, but 20 to 25 knots may be in the cards for a brief time. Any strong gusts should diminish shortly after 01-02Z. KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday Night...High Confidence. A relatively weak pressure gradient should keep winds and seas generally below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through Sunday night. However, good mixing on westerly flow Sunday may yield a few afternoon nearshore wind gusts of 20-25 knots creating some chop. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunday... Dry westerly flow in pre-greenup should allow for elevated fire weather concerns on Sunday. The airmass will mix deeply and allow for a large temp/dewpoint spread. Highs should reach the upper 50s to near 60 with dewpoints dropping into the lower to middle 20s. This should result in minimum afternoon relative humidities between 20 and 30 percent. The deep mixing should also produce some 20 to 25 mph wind gusts with perhaps a few locales approaching 30 mph briefly. However, the rainfall today was wetting for most locations. Will continue to monitor this potential overnight. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM NEAR TERM...Frank SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...Belk/RM MARINE...Belk/RM FIRE WEATHER...Belk
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