Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

2/11/2025 12:05am 
  • Lexington Conditions: Few Clouds

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  • Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
  • Barometer: -- in Steady
  • Visibility: 10 miles
  • Rain Today: 0.00 in
  •   

National Short Range Forecast Discussion

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 11 2025 - 00Z Thu Feb 13 2025

...Very active pattern to continue across the CONUS over the next several
days with three high impact major storms...

...Heavy snows likely from the Mid to Upper Ohio Valley, Central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic from storm #1, along with significant icing
over portions of the Central Appalachians...

...Two rounds of heavy rains to bring flash and river flooding threat from
eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee
Valley and Southern Appalachians from storms # 1 & # 2...

..Widespread heavy snows possible with storm # 2 from the Central Plains
into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Mid-West, Lower Great Lakes, Northeast
and New England...

...Storm # 3 set to impact California with heavy rains and high elevation
snows.  Flash flooding and mudslide threats to increase across the burn
scars of Southern California on Thursday...

A very active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS over the next
several days, producing three significant storms affecting large portions
of the nation.  Precipitation will become increasingly widespread Monday
night into early Tuesday from eastern portions of the Southern Plains into
the lower Mississippi Valley as the lead storm system in the active
weather pattern begins to develop.  This organized precipitation will then
spread quickly east northeastward during Tuesday across the Tennessee
Valley, Southern to Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.  Heavy snows
are possible on the northern portion of the precipitation area from the
Middle to Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, where
snow totals of 4-6" are possible. In addition to the snow, significant
icing is possible across portions of the Central Appalachians from western
North Carolina into Southwest to south central Virginia and far southeast
West Virginia.  Across these areas, the combination of the snow and ice
will produce difficult and dangerous traveling conditions.  Winter storm
warnings and watches are currently in effect across these areas.  Heavy
rains, flash and river flooding will also be a threat with this lead storm
across areas to the south of the heavy snow and ice threat.  Flood watches
are currently in effect across portions of south central to southeast
Kentucky where recent rains have resulted in saturated soils and high
stream flows.  The threat of heavy rain from this lead system on Tuesday
and additional heavy rains on Wednesday associated with the second storm,
will increase the risk of life threatening flash and river flooding.

As the lead storm is affecting the Upper Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley,
Southern to Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, storm # 2 will begin to
form across eastern Texas Wednesday.  This storm will support an
increasing area of heavy snows across the Central Plains into the Middle
Mississippi Valley Wednesday, Mid-West and Great Lakes region Wednesday
evening and night, and into the Northeast and New England on Thursday. 
Winter storm watches are currently in effect from far east central
Colorado into much Kansas and northern Missouri.  As this storm forms and
moves northeastward, additional  winter storm watches and warnings will
likely be issued the National Weather Service.  A large region of snowfall
totals in excess of 6 inches is possible from Tuesday evening into
Thursday across central to northern Kansas, northern Missouri, far
southeast Nebraska, southeast Iowa, northern Illinois, southeast
Wisconsin, nearly all of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, far northern New
York State and far northern Maine. Areas farther to the south across the
remainder of New England and Upstate New York will see less snow totals as
the snow may mix with sleet and freezing rain.

Similar to the lead system, the southern end of the precipitation
associated with storm # 2 will bring heavy rain, flash and river flooding
threats Tuesday and Wednesday from eastern Texas, across northern
Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, large sections of Mississippi, northern
Alabama, northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, the Upstate of South
Carolina and far western North Carolina.  Widespread totals of 2-4+ inches
of rain are possible across these areas, with much of this region seeing
heavy rains from the first and second storm systems.

The third major storm system affecting the Lower 48 over the next few days
will be moving across the eastern Pacific Ocean and toward California
Wednesday night/early Thursday.  Heavy rains and high elevation snows will
begin to affect central to northern California before sunrise Thursday,
spreading farther south into Southern California during the day Thursday,
while also continuing to affect central to Northern California.  The burn
scars from the recent devastating wildfires over Southern California will
be increasingly susceptible to flash floods and mudslides on Thursday as
the heavy rains spread into this region.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php