Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 00Z Tue Feb 11 2025 - 00Z Thu Feb 13 2025 ...Very active pattern to continue across the CONUS over the next several days with three high impact major storms... ...Heavy snows likely from the Mid to Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic from storm #1, along with significant icing over portions of the Central Appalachians... ...Two rounds of heavy rains to bring flash and river flooding threat from eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians from storms # 1 & # 2... ..Widespread heavy snows possible with storm # 2 from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Mid-West, Lower Great Lakes, Northeast and New England... ...Storm # 3 set to impact California with heavy rains and high elevation snows. Flash flooding and mudslide threats to increase across the burn scars of Southern California on Thursday... A very active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS over the next several days, producing three significant storms affecting large portions of the nation. Precipitation will become increasingly widespread Monday night into early Tuesday from eastern portions of the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley as the lead storm system in the active weather pattern begins to develop. This organized precipitation will then spread quickly east northeastward during Tuesday across the Tennessee Valley, Southern to Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Heavy snows are possible on the northern portion of the precipitation area from the Middle to Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, where snow totals of 4-6" are possible. In addition to the snow, significant icing is possible across portions of the Central Appalachians from western North Carolina into Southwest to south central Virginia and far southeast West Virginia. Across these areas, the combination of the snow and ice will produce difficult and dangerous traveling conditions. Winter storm warnings and watches are currently in effect across these areas. Heavy rains, flash and river flooding will also be a threat with this lead storm across areas to the south of the heavy snow and ice threat. Flood watches are currently in effect across portions of south central to southeast Kentucky where recent rains have resulted in saturated soils and high stream flows. The threat of heavy rain from this lead system on Tuesday and additional heavy rains on Wednesday associated with the second storm, will increase the risk of life threatening flash and river flooding. As the lead storm is affecting the Upper Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southern to Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, storm # 2 will begin to form across eastern Texas Wednesday. This storm will support an increasing area of heavy snows across the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday, Mid-West and Great Lakes region Wednesday evening and night, and into the Northeast and New England on Thursday. Winter storm watches are currently in effect from far east central Colorado into much Kansas and northern Missouri. As this storm forms and moves northeastward, additional winter storm watches and warnings will likely be issued the National Weather Service. A large region of snowfall totals in excess of 6 inches is possible from Tuesday evening into Thursday across central to northern Kansas, northern Missouri, far southeast Nebraska, southeast Iowa, northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin, nearly all of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, far northern New York State and far northern Maine. Areas farther to the south across the remainder of New England and Upstate New York will see less snow totals as the snow may mix with sleet and freezing rain. Similar to the lead system, the southern end of the precipitation associated with storm # 2 will bring heavy rain, flash and river flooding threats Tuesday and Wednesday from eastern Texas, across northern Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, large sections of Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, the Upstate of South Carolina and far western North Carolina. Widespread totals of 2-4+ inches of rain are possible across these areas, with much of this region seeing heavy rains from the first and second storm systems. The third major storm system affecting the Lower 48 over the next few days will be moving across the eastern Pacific Ocean and toward California Wednesday night/early Thursday. Heavy rains and high elevation snows will begin to affect central to northern California before sunrise Thursday, spreading farther south into Southern California during the day Thursday, while also continuing to affect central to Northern California. The burn scars from the recent devastating wildfires over Southern California will be increasingly susceptible to flash floods and mudslides on Thursday as the heavy rains spread into this region. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php