Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 191837
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
237 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable through Tue night with gusty NE winds
  developing along the coast. Lows tonight and Tue night mainly
  in the 30s and 40s, with afternoon highs Tue in the upper 
  50s-middle 60s.

- Chances for rainfall towards coastal areas Wednesday into
  Thursday due to an offshore nor'easter well to our south. 
  Main impacts from this system will be marine-based: rough 
  seas, beach erosion, and strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable through Tue night with gusty
NE winds developing along the coast. Lows tonight and Tue 
night mainly in the 30s and 40s, with afternoon highs Tue in the
upper 50s-middle 60s.

Dry and seasonable weather continues through Tue night. Large
high pressure across eastern Canada coupled with low pressure 
off the North Carolina coast will result in an increasing
pressure gradient. This will result in a N-NE winds increasing
Tue into Tue night along the coastal plain. Northeast wind gusts 
of 20-30 mph are expected to develop along the I-95 corridor
with 30-40 mph wind gusts for the Cape and Islands. In fact,
Nantucket may see a few gusts on the order of 45+ mph and
approach marginal Wind Advisory criteria.

We expect dry weather to prevail through Tue night outside the
low risk for a few showers reaching Nantucket. We may see some
low clouds at times develop towards the southeast New England
coast, but the greater risk for eastern MA/RI may wait until 
very late Tue night. 

Low temps tonight and Tue night will be mainly in the 30s and
40s. The mildest lows will be across the Cape/Islands, where
gusty NE winds will hold overnight low temps in the middle 40s
to the lower 50s. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 
upper 50s to the middle 60s. The warmest of those highs will be 
across the interior with the coolest temps will be towards the 
Cape and Islands given the marine influence.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chances for rainfall towards coastal areas
Wednesday into Thursday due to an offshore nor'easter well to
our south. Main impacts from this system will be marine-based: 
rough seas, beach erosion, and strong winds.

Confidence remains high that an offshore nor'easter will remain
mainly south of our region. The questions are: how close does 
it approach southern New England? And how quickly will it move 
past us?

The NAM continues to be the farthest west of most of the
guidance. The majority of solutions keep this low pressure well
south of the 40N/70W benchmark. There are large differences in
timing, with the GFS on the slower end, and the ECMWF the most
progressive. All things considered, there is a risk for showers
across southeast MA and perhaps part of eastern RI sometime from
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Most of southern New
England will remain dry during this time. Total rainfall should
be light, with perhaps Nantucket seeing around one quarter inch.

The main impacts from this nor'easter will be over the coastal
marine areas. NE gales continue to be expected across the
southern waters, as well as rough seas. Rough seas also expected
across the eastern waters, but will not be quite as high.
Persistent easterly fetch associated with these winds, along 
with building rough seas, will need to be monitored as well, as 
beach erosion along east- and northeast-facing beaches may 
become an issue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.

Mainly VFR conditions continue through Tue, but some brief MVFR 
cigs may flirt with the Cape/Islands at times. Appears a greater 
risk for low clouds/MVFR cigs to overspread eastern MA/RI very 
late Tue night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts up to 35 kt. 

Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. 

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up
to 30 kt. 

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday: VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.

High pressure over eastern Canada will combined with low
pressure off the North Carolina coast. This will result in an
increasing NE pressure gradient and increasing winds through 
Tue night. Strong small craft headlines remain posted for our 
northern waters with gale warnings for our southern waters. NE 
wind gusts of 30-40 knots are expected, strongest of which will 
be for our southern waters where a few gusts near 45 knots are 
possible. Seas should build to between 7 and 13 feet by daybreak
Wed with the highest across our southern-most outer waters.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough
seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas
up to 12 ft. 

Friday: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough
seas up to 13 ft. 

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. 

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday 
     for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for 
     ANZ231>235-237-254>256-281>283.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT 
     Wednesday for ANZ250-251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/Frank
AVIATION...Belk/Frank
MARINE...Belk/Frank