Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Partly cloudy
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 271747
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1247 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder and windier conditions follow behind the cold front for 
Thanksgiving. Winds then increase on Friday and lessen by Saturday, 
with scattered flurries at times in interior Southern New England to 
end the week. Another low pressure passes to our north and west 
Sunday afternoon and night bringing a period of rain. Cooling down 
again for Monday as a cold front passes through. Monitoring possible 
storminess around Tue/Wed.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Colder today and blustery. 

Our cold front continues to push through southern New England early 
this morning, presently draped from north to south across eastern 
MA. This should push offshore in the next few hours with a 
significant drying behind it on increasing NW winds. 850mb temps 
drop precipitously as a broad mid level trough expands over the 
Great Lakes and eventually New England. This all leads to a mostly 
sunny but cooler day, with highs in the mid/upper 40s feeling more 
like the 30s thanks to winds gusting 25 to 35 mph. Winds will come 
down overnight but with only a marginal inversion if any so likely 
won't see winds becoming calm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Windier and colder on Friday. 

* Scattered show showers/flurries over western/central MA possible. 

Winds quickly pick up on Friday after sunrise as the mixing layer 
increases in height coincident to the core of a 45kt LLJ moving 
overhead. Currently expecting the windiest day of the week with 
gusts as high as 45 mph in the high terrain/eastern slopes of the 
Berkshires. The core of colder air also moves closer so those high 
temperatures drop several degrees, into the upper 30s/low 40s. The 
only precipitation to note will be some scattered lake effect 
streamers from the Great Lakes that will hold together across NY and 
making for some festive flakes with negligible accumulations in 
western/central MA during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Less windy on Saturday. 

* Temps warm up significantly Sunday before dropping again first 
  half of next week. 

* Quick hitting light rain Sunday/Sunday night followed by the 
  potential for a higher impact, potentially wintry storm around 
  Tuesday/Wednesday but confidence is low. 

Cold, cyclonic flow continues overhead on Saturday but the core of 
the LLJ moves off so winds, while breezy, will be lighter than on 
Friday. One more day of cold temperatures (peaking in the mid 
30s/low 40s) before a significant warm up Sunday with the arrival of 
a warm front ahead of a low pressure system passing to our north. 
This brings with it stratiform rain showers accompanying temps in 
the upper 40s to low 50 in the afternoon. Guidance has sped up the 
arrival so many will see wet weather on Sunday, but it comes to an 
end well before sunrise Monday; not expecting a lot of QPF from this 
quick hitting system.

The more interesting system is slated for around Tuesday as the next 
deep shortwave digging into the OH valley looks to drag a surface 
low center past New England from SW to NE; the biggest question, the 
exact track and how precip types subsequently shake out, is still a 
long time from being answered at 6 days out. At this point guidance 
has all option on the table from a mostly rain event to a near miss 
offshore to a snowier solution. For now, ensembles are not enthused. 
Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z update...

Today/Thanksgiving...High Confidence. 

VFR. SCT-BKN clouds 4000-9000 ft this afternoon. W winds 10-15 
kts with gusts 20-30 kts. Gusts decreasing after 21z as we lose
sunlight. 

Tonight...High Confidence. 

VFR. SW winds 8-12 kts.  

Friday...High Confidence. 

VFR. Gusty winds develop 14-16z as the boundary layer mixes out. W
winds 15-25 kts with gusts 25-30 kts. Can't rule out an isolated
gusts up to 35 kts, mainly for the the higher terrain and 
Cape/Islands. Periods of SCT-BKN decks 5000-10,000 ft. Can't
rule out an isolated flurry for western terminals. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... 

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Friday... High confidence.

* Small Craft Advisories for all marine zones Thursday. 

* Gale Warning for Friday through early Saturday across all waters.

A cold front crosses the waters early this morning clearing fog/low 
clouds. Gusts 25-34 kts are possible for a period after the frontal 
passage early this morning. Otherwise winds/gusts 20-30 kts for 
marine zones today. Seas rising to 6-8ft by the afternoon for the 
southern outer waters. This will keep marine zones in SCA criteria 
all day. Southern outer waters may briefly by shy of gale winds for 
a brief period with the frontal passage early this morning. Gale 
Warning is in effect for Friday. 

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... 

Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. 

Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 11 ft. 

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. 

Sunday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain. 

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for 
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Mensch
MARINE...BW