Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Overcast
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 010009
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
809 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few leftover showers possible this evening, otherwise drying
  out tonight followed by sunshine and seasonably mild
  conditions Friday. 

- Cooler this weekend. Risk for showers as a low pressure 
  passes by offshore.

- Becoming warmer for most of next week. Although, unsettled
  conditions return toward the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A few leftover showers possible this evening, 
otherwise drying out tonight followed by sunshine and seasonably 
mild conditions Friday.

Bulk of shower activity has lifted to the north and east. We
can't rule out a spot shower this evening as mid level shortwave 
moves through. Otherwise, drying out overnight as weak front
passes followed by NW flow and decreasing PWATs. This will lead 
to a mostly sunny day on Friday with diurnal CU developing as 
upper low resides to the north with relatively cold temps aloft.
Seasonable temps expected with highs low-mid 60s, except cooler
higher terrain. 

Dry weather continues into Fri night but another shortwave 
approaching from the west may bring a few showers mostly after 
midnight, especially in the interior. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler this weekend. Risk for showers as a low 
pressure passes by offshore.

The big question for this weekend revolves around how closely a
low pressure will get to southern New England. Projected mid 
level flow has a trough axis west of the Appalachians, with the 
consensus storm track over the Mid Atlantic into the North 
Atlantic. A subtle shift in the orientation of this flow could 
force a storm track closer to our region, with a great risk for 
showers Saturday Night into Sunday.

Expecting a low track about 125 miles SE of the 40N/70W
benchmark at the closest approach of a low pressure Saturday
night at present. Latest consensus model output slightly
increased rainfall chances across the Cape and islands, as well 
as portions of the coastal plains of MA and RI. Not looking at 
much rainfall when all is done by Sunday afternoon. Expecting 
amounts 0.10 inch or less north and west of I-495, with perhaps 
0.50-0.75 inch across the Cape and islands. Will be monitoring 
the actual approach of this low pressure over the coming days.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Becoming warmer for most of next week. Although, 
unsettled conditions return toward the end of next week.

High pressure well to our south early next week should boost high 
temperatures into the 60s Monday and the 70s for Tuesday.
Thinking it will remain mainly dry Monday, but then a cold 
front should pass by sometime Tuesday with a risk for showers. 
The greatest risk for showers looks to be sometime Wednesday 
night into Thursday as a low pressure moves through the Great 
Lakes and pushes a couple of fronts across our region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence
in timing.

MVFR-IFR conditions persist into the evening, then gradual
improvement to VFR from W to E overnight, although patchy fog 
may develop overnight in spots. VFR continues Fri into Fri
night, but scattered showers may develop late Fri night across
the interior. Winds becoming NW 5-10 kt this evening, increasing 
to 10-15 kt Fri, then becoming light to calm Fri night.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Main uncertainty is
the when conditions fully improve to VFR 

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. 

Monday: VFR. Breezy. 

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Generally light winds, becoming NW, into Fri then becoming SW 
late Fri into Fri night. Seas 4-6 ft over outer waters will 
subside late tonight into Fri. SCA for seas will continue until
this time. 

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers. 

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. 

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough
seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/KJC
AVIATION...Belk/KJC
MARINE...KJC