Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 071610
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1210 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes to the forecast. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and perhaps isolated t-storms this
  afternoon. Focus across eastern New England where activity may
  linger into part of the evening. Dry/cooler weather follows
  tonight into Mon night. 
 
- Summerlike heat and humidity returns next week, no notable
  storms, though a front may bring a period of showers and
  thunderstorms mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and perhaps isolated t-storms this 
afternoon. Focus across eastern New England where activity may 
linger into part of the evening. Dry/cooler weather follows tonight 
into Mon night. 

A dynamic shortwave/cold pool aloft will drop south into the region 
this afternoon. Although the low level moisture will be 
lacking...the dynamics/cold pool aloft will result in several 
hundred J/KG of Cape developing which potentially may approach 1000 
J/Kg near the south coast. This will trigger scattered this 
afternoon with potentially isolated t-storms. Perhaps some gusty 
winds/small hail would be possible if a t-storm is able to develop 
given cold pool aloft and modest T/Td spreads. Activity will focus 
across eastern New England...where it may linger into part of this 
evening. 

Otherwise...drier/cooler air will continue to work into the region 
tonight on northerly flow behind the cold front. Low temps tonight 
will be in the 50s...But some of our typically prone low-lying 
locations will briefly decouple and allow for lows in the middle to 
upper 40s. 

Large high pressure builds across the region Mon into Mon night. 
This will result in sunny skies on Mon with highs in the upper 70s 
to near 80...But cooler upper 60s to lower 70s on parts of the very 
immediate coast with onshore flow. Mainly clear skies with 
light/calm winds Mon night will result in a good night of 
radiational cooling. Low temps Mon night will be in the 40s across 
the outlying locations to generally lower to middle 50s elsewhere. 
However...the Urban Heat Island of Boston will only drop to around 
60 as southwest flow begins to warm advect. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Summerlike heat and humidity returns next week,
no notable storms, though a front may bring a period of showers
and thunderstorms mid to late week.

Through much of next week, an anomalous ridge extending north toward 
Hudson Bay in Canada favors mainly dry and increasingly hot 
conditions. 850 mb temperatures rise to around +15C Tuesday, then 
increase to around +18C Wednesday through Friday. This should 
support highs in the middle 80s to near 90 Tuesday, followed by 
upper 80s to lower 90s through much of the remainder of the week. 
The first half of next week should feature relatively comfortable 
dewpoints in the 50s. However, by late week, dewpoints rise into the 
60s, leading to a more humid airmass. While outside the forecast 
period, there is a signal for heat to continue into next weekend, 
reflected in CPC outlooks depicting a Slight Risk (20 to 40 percent 
probability) for extreme heat across portions of the Northeast. 
There is still time to assess this signal in forthcoming guidance, 
though heat headlines may eventually be needed for portions of the 
period. In terms of precipitation, there does not appear to be 
anything appreciable on the horizon through much of next week. 
However, a frontal passage later in the week may bring a period of 
showers and thunderstorms as heat and humidity continue to build.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions dominate through Monday night. However...scattered 
showers will develop this afternoon with perhaps an isolated t-storm 
or two which may linger into part of the evening across eastern New 
England. This activity may result in briefly lower cigs/vsbys. In 
addition...a brief period mainly MVFR cigs roughly in the 22z to 06z 
may sweep across the region from north to south with the greatest 
risk across eastern MA/Cape and Islands. Outside of those two 
items...VFR conditions right through Monday night. 

As for winds...NW wind gusts of 20-25 knots this afternoon shift to 
the N tonight. Brief N wind gusts of 20-25 knots with the strongest 
near the coast before they gradually diminish or even decouple in 
the typically prone spots overnight. Light NE winds Mon becoming SW 
Mon night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. 

Tuesday Night: VFR. 

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Monday night...High confidence.

Shortwave/cold front crosses the region by early-mid evening. This 
will bring a surge of N wind gusts of 25 knots especially across our 
eastern waters. Small craft headlines have been posted for most of 
our waters. High pressure building into the region Mon will result 
in winds/seas dropping below small craft headlines from north to 
south...but it may take until late afternoon/early evening across 
our southeast most outer-waters. 

Lastly...will need to watch for a few showers and isolated t-storm 
developing nearshore later today into early this evening... 
particularly near the south coast. Gusty winds/small hail and 
lightning possible with any t-storm. 

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. 

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. 

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frank/Dooley
AVIATION...Frank/Dooley
MARINE...Frank/Dooley