Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231806
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
106 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Overcast with isolated sprinkles or flurries through mid evening
as weak low pressure moves through northern New England, with
decreasing clouds overnight. Blustery but dry weather for
Monday, with increasing clouds for Monday evening. A warm front
will bring a period of rain from late Tuesday into Wednesday 
morning, mild with a continued chance of showers Wednesday into 
Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler and 
blustery conditions follow behind the front for Thanksgiving 
Day, then windy and cold weather for next Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM Update:

Key Messages: 

* Overcast with a flurry or sprinkle possible through mid-evening 
  but nothing worse. Decreasing cloudiness after midnight except 
  over the Cape and Islands.

Details:

Midlevel cloud canopy has overspread Southern New England, in 
association with a fast-moving Clipper low centered over the St. 
Lawrence River Valley in NW NY. Pretty favorable ascent with New 
England being located in the poleward exit region of a midlevel 
jetstreak - this jetstreak seen in WV imagery as the enhanced 
dryslot seen racing thru eastern PA. However much of the returns 
seen on regional radar mosaic have not amounted to much at all as 
drier air below cloud base appears to be winning out. It also looks 
like sustained precip will be tougher to come by in Southern New 
England given the drier punch of air aloft and better (deeper) 
saturation confined to interior northern New England. Wouldn't rule 
out a sprinkle or flurry at worst through early to mid evening as 
low pressure moves through but that will likely be the worst of it 
with considerable cloud cover to be the rule. 

Decreasing cloud cover after midnight in most areas, though there 
may be leftover ocean-enhanced cloudiness near the Cape and Islands 
as winds become NWly with some marginal ocean-enhanced instability 
as 925-850 mb thermal trough moves overhead. Early cloud cover and 
then NW winds around 5-10 mph increasing toward the pre-dawn hrs 
should lead to lows in the mid 20s to around freezing, with mid 30s 
Cape and Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
100 PM Update:

Key Messages: 

* Blustery with dry weather Monday. 

* Early lows Mon night, but temps rise before daybreak with 
  increasing clouds. 

Details: 

Mostly clear with dry weather Mon, but will also see some blustery 
northwest winds. More shallow mixing (mixing depths to around 900 mb 
per BUFKIT profiles) should keep gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range 
from mid-morning to early afternoon before subsiding by mid-
afternoon to sundown. Highs should top out in the 40s, with low 40s 
terrain and mid/upper 40s lower elevations, coastal plain and the 
cities. 

Initial WNW winds then slacken early Mon night as sfc ridge of high 
pressure moves offshore. Continued easterly translation of the high 
to permit a moderately-strong warm advection regime to develop for 
the second half of the night, with increasing SW winds 5-10 mph and 
as well as an increasing coverage of mid to high clouds. This should 
allow for early lows in the mid 20s to around freezing, then rise 
into the 30s toward daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages: 

* Dry and seasonable Tuesday. Rain Tuesday night into Wednesday as a 
  warm front lifts across the region, turning mild with showers for 
  Wednesday afternoon.

* Cooler conditions return Thursday into this weekend, along
  with a lower chance of rain and snow showers, and breezy
  conditions.

Overview: Tuesday the trough axis shifts east of New England and the 
mid-level heights increase with a 1025mb surface high southwest of 
the region. Rain arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday morning due to 
a warm frontal passage, showers continue into Wednesday along with 
mild conditions as southern New England is firmly placed in the warm 
sector. A robust shortwave and cold frontal passage Wednesday night 
into early Thanksgiving morning. The trough becomes cut off across 
the high latitudes late Thursday into Friday, and moves to the 
Canadian Maritimes this coming weekend. Passage of the cold front on 
Thanksgiving leads to CAA and a period of gusty west-northwest wind 
on both Thursday and Friday, as the magnitude of the 850mb jet 
increases between 40 and 55 knots. High pressure returns for the 
start of next weekend with diminishing winds. 

Precipitation: Mentioned above, the next chance for rain arrives on 
Tuesday during the late afternoon to early evening with the passage 
of a warm front. Southwesterly 850mb winds transport higher moisture 
with PWATs increasing up to an inch and there is growing confidence 
there will be enough assent to support those widespread shower into 
the overnight hours, ending early Wednesday morning. Rain becomes 
showery for Wednesday as the region remains in the warm sector. As 
for rainfall, not expecting any significant totals at this time. The 
probabilities of 0.5" or more are roughly 40 to 60 percent. The cold 
front moves through overnight and exits early Thanksgiving morning. 
As temperatures fall, upslope snow flurries are possible across the 
high terrain of northern and northwest Massachusetts. PWATs fall 
considerably behind the front, but a persistent west-northwest flow 
could allow for lake effect snow showers to come off the eastern 
Great Lakes, leading to periods of festive flurries in far western 
areas. Otherwise, dry weather prevails into this coming weekend as 
high pressure develops. 

Temperatures: 

A brief warmup is anticipated Tuesday and especially Wednesday as the 
flow aloft turns to the southwest, 925mb temperatures reaching near 
+12C by Wednesday afternoon! Expecting seasonal conditions Tuesday 
as highs reach the low to middle 50s, with upper 40s in the high 
terrain. Wednesday feels spring-like as highs top off near 60F 
across the coastal plain while the rest of the region are in the 
upper and middle 50s. Behind the cold front, 925mb temperatures fall 
to 0C on Thanksgiving, and then -5C to -3C for Friday and Saturday. 
Cooler for Thanksgiving day, with highs in the upper 40s near the 
coast and lower 40s across the high terrain. Friday and Saturday are 
chilly with highs in the low 40s to upper 30s. Mind you, there will 
be a gusty west-northwest wind which will make it feel as if it were 
below freezing both afternoons. As for nighttime lows, there is no 
significant cold on the horizon, lows are at or above freezing 
Tuesday and Wednesday night, then sub-freezing lows Thursday night 
through Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

Lowering ceilings but should be in the VFR range for the
majority of the time; thinking bases in the BKN/OVC 035-050 
range with an outside chance at MVFR decks at worst. Left VCSH
in between 20-02z from west to east, but may end up bring
sprinkles or flurries with restrictions to visby not
anticipated. SW winds 5-10 kt, starting to shift to W late in
the western airports.

Tonight: High confidence.

OVC mainly VFR, outside chance at MVFR decks with flurries or 
sprinkles thru 02z for the eastern terminals. Steady improvement
in ceilings after 02z with decreasing cloudiness (some lingering
ocean-enhanced cloudiness Cape and Islands) and NW winds around
8-12 kt.

Monday: High confidence. 

VFR. WNW winds 10-15 kt, gusts to low 20s kt range but will
begin to decrease late in the day. 

Monday Night: High confidence.

VFR, increasing covg of mid/high clouds after 06z. WNW/W winds
5-10 kt early continue to decrease but then shift to SW and
increase to 5-10 kt after 06z.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Mainly VFR;
spinkles/flurries possible after 00z Mon to 02/03z Mon but 
little/no impact. Windshift to NW around 10-12 kt after 
midnight.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/... 

Monday Night: VFR. 

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Thanksgiving Day: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Monday Night: High confidence.

SW to W winds and seas remain below SCA criterion through the rest 
of the afternoon into early tonight. Outside chance at a sprinkle or 
flurry early tonight but not enough to reduce visibility.

Added small craft advisories for the southern waters starting after 
midnight into the first part of Monday as NW winds develop overnight 
and become gusty in the 25-30 kt range. Seas increase into the 3-6 
ft range, higher on the southern outer waters Mon. Winds and seas 
then begin to decrease early Mon night, with winds becoming 
southerly around 10-15 kt by Tue daybreak.

Outlook /Tuesday through Thursday/... 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Rain. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers. 

Thanksgiving Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Monday 
     for ANZ232>235-237-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/Loconto
MARINE...KJC/Loconto