Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 081858
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
258 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast. We now have high confidence 
in springtime warmth for much of this week, especially Tuesday, 
along with the potential for minor river flooding within the next 7 
days.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Any lingering scattered showers depart by this evening.

- Above normal temperatures next week. Trending more unsettled
  mid to late week with a round or two of precipitation. Back to
  cool temperatures by Friday.

- Expecting significant snowmelt over the coming week. Minor
  river flooding possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Any lingering scattered showers depart by this
evening.

A slow-moving front should finally push offshore this evening. 
Expecting gradual clearing for most of southern New England as 
drier air arrives from the NW. However, clouds and areas of fog 
are likely to linger towards the south coast, including the 
Cape and islands, pretty much all night. Above normal low 
temperatures anticipated tonight.

We continue this warming trend right into Monday night with drier 
weather.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures next week. Trending
more unsettled mid to late week with a round or two of 
precipitation. Back to cool temperatures by Friday.

A mid-level ridge builds in further from the south advecting in 
warm, southerly flow. In response, 925mb temperatures rise to
10-14C, supporting above normal temperatures for much of next
week. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with highs in the
60s with a interior/valley areas potentially approaching 70.
This runs temperatures round 20-25 degrees above normal.
However, immediate coastal areas end up on the cooler side,
especially along the immediate south coast and the Cape and
Islands given the onshore southerly component flow. Those
mentioned areas will more likely stay in the 40s and 50s. Some
guidance continues to hint at the potential for a backdoor front 
sinking into the northern portions of MA, mainly northeast MA. 
If this front shifts far enough southward, temperatures would 
end up cooler in northeast MA relative to other areas of
southern New England. Confidence still on the lower end with 
this given the lack of model agreement and there is some 
question on the south extent of the front/cooler air. 

The pattern trends more unsettled Wednesday onward with the
passage of a few shortwave troughs bringing a few rounds of
precipitation through late week. A plume of above normal
moisture will advect in out ahead of a more robust shortwave
moving across the Great Lakes starting Wednesday. A weaker
leading wave will help generate scattered showers on Wednesday. 
Thursday's wave will be more organized with a stronger cold
front/trough accompanying it. This will support more widespread 
precipitation Thursday. Likely rain to start, with a transition 
to snow/wintry mix possible for the higher terrain as the front 
works through later Thursday. 

Trending cooler for Friday behind the cold front. Confidence in
the pattern decreases into the weekend with potential for a few 
systems to move through the flow bringing periodic chances for 
precipitation Saturday through early the following week. 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Expecting significant snowmelt over the coming
week. Minor river flooding possible.

Elevated temperatures and dewpoints this week will lead to rapid 
melting of what's left of our snowpack, which eventually leads 
to rises on rivers and streams. Guidance continues to indicate a
likelihood of reaching minor flood stage in the CT river valley
late next week, and can't rule out several other rivers as 
well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence in trends with moderate confidence in 
timing. 

Widespread IFR conditions continue to improve this afternoon, 
with areas northwest of I-95 already VFR as drier air arrives. 
Meanwhile...IFR/LIFR conditions will persist near the south 
coast and especially the Cape & Islands where fog and areas of 
drizzle may linger into the afternoon. Generally WSW winds 5-10 
knots with a few gusts up to 20 knots.

Tonight and Monday...High confidence. 

Any lingering IFR/LIFR conditions near the Cape/Islands this 
evening should scour out toward or shortly after after midnight.
Otherwise...mainly VFR tonight and Monday. Calm/light SW winds 
tonight. Winds on Mon will be from the S-SW at 7 to 15 knots.

Monday Night...High confidence.

Mainly VFR. Risk for IFR in stratus and fog towards the Cape and
islands late.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends and moderate 
confidence in timing.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends and moderate 
confidence in timing.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. 

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance RA.

Wednesday Night: Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA.

Thursday: Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN.

Thursday Night: Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA,
slight chance SN.

Friday: Breezy. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Monday...High confidence.

Lingering rough seas across the coastal waters will be slower 
to diminish, but should finally drop below Small Craft Advisory
levels by mid morning Monday. Lastly, areas of fog reducing
visibility to less than 1 NM will remain a concern for mariners
until a cold front finally moves off to the east this evening.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of rain, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
10 ft. Chance of rain. 

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 9 ft. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow. 

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232-
     233.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/Mensch
AVIATION...McMinn/Mensch
MARINE...Belk/Mensch