Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221847
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
247 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Gale Warnings have begun to be replaced by Small Craft
Advisories for near shore southern waters, and this will
continue over the next 24 hours. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cooler day on Friday with plenty of sun and diminishing wind. 

- Prolonged stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures
  prevails this weekend into much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler day on Friday with plenty of sun and 
diminishing wind.

Friday will continue the stretch of beautiful Fall weather for the 
region as we say goodbye to any influence from Subtropical Storm 
Josephine, replaced by building high pressure encroaching from the 
north. The weakening gradient will mean less of that northerly wind 
through the day. After winds initially start out breezy, gusting 15-
25 mph they'll end the day much lighter. Overnight in fact, under 
high pressure winds will become calm under clear skies, so lows were 
trended toward the colder MOS guidance, in the upper 20s to low 30s. 
This, after a cooler day on Friday after cold advection kicks in 
aloft; 925mb temps drop from 9C today to 0-1C on Friday leading to 
highs in the 50s. 


KEY MESSAGE 2...Prolonged stretch of dry weather with 
seasonable temperatures prevails this weekend into much of next 
week.

A prolonged stretch of dry but pleasant autumn weather is in store 
for Southern New England spanning this weekend then continuing into 
a large portion of the upcoming workweek. Expansive area of surface 
high pressure of around 1030-1034 mb will remain anchored across the 
Northeast and mid-Atlantic region, with mild days and cool nights 
with strong diurnal temperature ranges. About the only nuanced 
difference is that a cold front sags southward Monday night into 
Tuesday with a cooler northern-stream airmass filtering southward; 
but the front is moisture-starved and only seems capable of 
producing some enhanced cloudiness Monday evening and a cooldown in 
high temps moving into next week. Mildest days look to be this 
weekend with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, but there could 
be a shot at 70 degrees with several days of dry weather serving as 
a mild feedback mechanism for overachieving maximum temps over 
guidance. Highs then cool off into the mid 50s to low 60s for early 
next week as the cooler lower-level airmass works it way in (925 mb 
temps dip to around +2 to +4C), only modifying toward mid to late 
next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update:

This afternoon...High confidence in trends.

VFR. NE winds of 15 to 25 kt along the eastern and southeastern
coast, with gusts of 25 to 40 kt. Strongest gusts expected at 
ACK, with lower gusts along the coastal plain. Farther inland, N
winds of 10 to 14 kt with gusts of 20 to 25 kts.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. N/NNW winds diminishing through the evening but remaining
breezy; strongest winds will be eastern and southeastern coast
terminals, with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kt and gusts of 20
to 30 kts.

Friday...High confidence.

VFR. Northerly winds across much of the region, though winds 
remain elevated east/southeast of I-95, with sustained speeds 
of 8 to 12 kt and gusts of 18 to 25 kts. Winds gradually
decrease through the afternoon/evening Friday in those
locations. 

Friday night...High confidence.

VFR. Winds light and variable to calm. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. Gusty northerly winds continue today, with sustained speeds of 
10 to 14 kt and gusts of 25 to 30 kt. Gusts decrease after 21Z
this afternoon, potentially diminishing for a period early this
evening. A front moves through 00-03Z bringing another period of
gusts 18-25 kts out of the N. Marginal gusts may stick around
through the early afternoon Friday before diminishing. 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday through Monday: VFR. 

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Friday night...High confidence in hazardous marine 
conditions.

Dangerous to life-threatening marine conditions continue as 
Subtropical Storm Josephine remains offshore of southern New 
England. Strong high pressure to the north, combined with Josephine 
to the southeast, maintains a tight pressure gradient across the 
coastal waters, resulting in persistent northeast winds and large 
seas.

Gale Warnings remain in effect across most coastal waters 
through at least 8 PM this evening, with northeast wind gusts 
generally ranging from 30 to 45 kt. As Josephine tracks 
northeast into the North Atlantic, winds gradually diminish from
west to east this evening. Gale Warnings across the waters west
of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard are expected to expire at 8 
PM, with Small Craft Advisories needed thereafter for lingering 
gusty winds and elevated seas. Farther east, gale-force gusts 
will persist longer, with Gale Warnings continuing through early
Friday afternoon. Once these warnings expire, Small Craft 
Advisories will likely be needed as winds gradually subside but 
seas remain elevated.

Marine conditions continue to improve Friday night and into the 
weekend as Josephine pulls farther away and high pressure builds 
into southern New England. However, elevated seas may linger beyond 
the strongest winds.

Outlook /Friday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. 

Sunday Night through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ230-233>235-
     237.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231-232-250-251-254-
     255-280>282.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ256-283.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dooley
AVIATION...BW/Mensch
MARINE...Dooley