Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Light rain, Mostly cloudy
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 191843
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
243 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale Warnings posted for the eastern coastal waters as well as
the MA bays and sounds.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather for most through Saturday with gusty west winds.

- Summer-like Sunday with comfortable humidity and a risk for
  afternoon showers. 

- Chances for a widespread rain Monday into Tuesday. Drier with
  seasonable temperatures follow for midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather for most through Saturday with gusty
west winds.

A low pressure over southeast Canada and a weak high pressure
over the central USA will maintain a westerly flow across New
England through Saturday. Since we will be closer to the low
pressure, expecting gusty winds wind peak speeds up to about 30
mph.

Dry weather persists as well. There is a low chance for a pop-up
afternoon shower or two across northern MA Saturday afternoon,
but many hours will remain dry even there.

Noticeably lower humidity today that should persist into
Saturday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures today,
lower slightly for Saturday. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Summer-like Sunday with comfortable humidity and
a risk for afternoon showers.

A sheared off mid level shortwave should move through weakly
cyclonic flow aloft Sunday. This is not the most potent forcing
for showers. However, it does appear to be enough where the idea
of typical afternoon popup showers can be dismissed. Thinking
the greatest risk will towards northern MA and northern New
England due to the closer proximity of the cold pool aloft.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Chances for a widespread rain Monday into
Tuesday. Drier with seasonable temperatures follow for midweek. 

We continue to track our next chance for a widespread rainfall
sometime Monday into Tuesday. There are still significant timing
and track differences with this low pressure early next week.
The 19/00Z GFS and ECMWF are on the progressive side. So much 
so, that Tuesday would be dry. The ECMWF was slightly farther
west with its track. On the other side of the solution envelope,
is the 19/00Z Canadian. While it has a more westward track like 
the ECMWF, it is slower with its timing. Will continue to take
an ensemble approach at this point with the timing. This will
focus most of the rainfall from Monday afternoon into Monday
night, followed by drying conditions during the day Tuesday.

Still robust signals in the NationalBlend output, with a greater
than 80% chance for 24-hour rainfall of 0.50 (12.7 mm) or 
greater ending 8 AM Tuesday. Even the probability for a 1 inch 
(25.4 mm) or more is a robust 60-70% during that same time.

Behind this system, high pressure starts to push in from the west, 
bringing a return to drier weather and seasonable temperatures 
through the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update: 

Through Tonight: High confidence. 

VFR. A spot shower possible toward BDL around 23-01z but 
confidence is too low for a mention in TAF. W wind gusts 25-30 
kt, and though they should begin to ease some after sundown, 
still could see gusts in the 20-25 kt range overnight as the 
low-level jet increases. 

Saturday: High confidence. 

VFR; some risk for diurnal SHRA with brief MVFR-VFR visbys 
after 17z mainly from BDL to PVD north and east through sundown 
and indicated with PROB30s. WNW winds again gusting 25-28 kt by 
mid-morning Saturday, then easing into sundown.

Saturday Night: High confidence.

VFR, any showers diminish post-sundown. WNW winds decrease to 
5-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Westerly gusts 25-30 kt
continue through sundown, but will still be clocking in around
20-25 kt overnight.
 
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. 

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, chance TSRA.

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Have issued SCAs on all waters and extended them through Saturday 
early evening, as westerly winds will be gusting to around 25-30 kt 
through Saturday. There may be some lull in the gusts overnight but 
would be short-lived and/or resume early Saturday morning. Seas in 
the 4-6 ft range, with 3-5 ft nearshore through Saturday. Risk for 
scattered showers during Saturday afternoon. 

Winds and seas should trend below SCA criterion Saturday night 
through Sunday, with gusts to 20 kt.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Local
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 10 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of
thunderstorms. 

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ230>235-
     237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk
AVIATION...Loconto/Birchfield
MARINE...Loconto/Birchfield