Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 261820
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
120 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front brings a period of steady rain early this morning 
followed by mild temperatures.  Low pressure passing well to the 
north swings a strong cold front through our region late tonight. 
Colder and windier conditions follow behind this front Thursday 
through Saturday. Milder temperatures Sunday, before another frontal 
boundary approaches from the west early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Widespread showers end early but scattered rain showers continue 
  through the day.

* Well above average temperatures in the upper 50s near 60. 

The surface warm front is progressing north early this morning and 
should be north of SNE by 12Z/7am. As such, while we'll see the 
widespread showers diminish this morning, lingering low and mid 
level moisture will keep us socked in with clouds and synoptic 
forcing means continued scattered showers through the day for some. 
Rain will be focused over the south coast where divergence aloft 
from the left exit region of an upper jet and low level convergence 
associated with a marginal LLJ will keep showers ongoing through 
much of the day. This is all brought to an end tonight as a strong 
cold front pushes through the region overnight taking the moisture 
with it. We can expect to wake up to mostly clear skies by 
Thanksgiving morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Colder and blustery on Thanksgiving. 

The holiday kicks off with plenty of sun, but don't let it fool you: 
it will be much colder than Wednesday; 850 mb temps drop from
+9C on Wed to -6C on Thu so we'll start off the day 15 to 20
degrees colder than 24 hours prior. Highs will struggle to get
out of the mid 40s. This cold advection also means a well mixed
boundary layer leading to a blustery day with winds gusting
25-35 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Windy and cold Friday into Saturday.

* Becoming unsettled Sunday night into Monday with a quick hitting 
  system. 

A generally benign, quiet, and cold holiday weekend follows as a 
much colder airmass settles overhead thanks to a sprawling mid level 
trough settling over the east coast. 850 mb temps bottom out around -
10C on Saturday before warm advection provides a moderating force 
for the second half of the weekend ahead of our next storm system. 
We'll see highs only in the 30s and low 40s Fri/Sat, rising back 
into the upper 40s/50s Sun into next week. 

Precipitation-wise the only thing to speak of before Sunday night is 
the possibility for some light snow accumulations in wester/central 
MA/CT on Friday thanks to lake effect showers streaming across NY. 
Beyond that, guidance is in fairly good agreement that another 
trough of low pressure passes north of the region Sunday night into 
Monday. This looks to be a quick hit of precipitation with a 
mild/rainy low track for SNE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z update...

This Afternoon...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing

Mainly MVFR-IFR conditions for remainder of afternoon. LIFR for
Cape/Islands. Low probability/low confidence for LIFR late
afternoon-early evening for PVD/BOS. Included as a FEW005 in TAF
due to low confidence. Few -SHRA through the evening for 
Cape/Islands. BR/FG for Cape/Islands bringing down vsbys to 
1/2SM to 2SM. As low as 1/4 (mainly ACK). Winds SSW/SW at 9-15 
kts.

Tonight...High Confidence

Cold frontal passage between 02-08Z from west to east, with
ceilings/vsbys rapidly improving to VFR behind it. Winds shift 
to W/WSW with front passage sustained 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25
kts, especially with/just behind the front passage.


Thursday/Thanksgiving...High Confidence. 

VFR. Brief period of lighter WSW winds 12-14z before winds mix
back down by 15Z, then W winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts
through remainder of day. 

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

MVFR dropping toward IFR after 20Z. Low probability for LIFR
cigs and BR in the evening briefly. Too low of confidence to 
mention in TAF, but did include a FEW005 after 23z to hint at 
the potential. FROPA timing 04-06Z overnight with cigs clearing
to VFR by 08Z. Windshift to W with gusts 20-25 kts.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... 

Thanksgiving Day: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. 

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday Night: VFR. 

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Thanksgiving... High confidence.

* Small Craft Advisory for all southern waters. 

* Gale Watch for Thursday through early Saturday across all waters.

A low pressure moves over the coastal waters early this morning with 
a period of steady rain. Increasing dewpoints may result in 
localized dense fog development over the cooler ocean waters.
Showers and fog dissipate tonight into Thursday as a cold front 
crosses the waters with a much cooler/drier air mass.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... 

Thanksgiving Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. 

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas
up to 12 ft. 

Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft. 

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for 
     ANZ230-236.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning 
     for ANZ231-250-251-254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ232>235-
     237-255-256.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for 
     ANZ232>235-237-255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Mensch
MARINE...BW