Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 202336
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
736 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine headlines (Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories) 
have been extended through Wednesday night. Gusty northeast
winds and rough seas continue. Otherwise, no significant
changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A distant Nor'Easter brings hazardous marine conditions, with
  gusty northeast breezes over land through Thursday. Other than
  some light rain showers on Wednesday in southeast New England, 
  dry weather otherwise prevails. 

- Prolonged stretch of dry weather Friday into early next week, 
  except for a brief risk of showers across the eastern coastal 
  waters Friday morning. Cooler Friday, followed by moderating 
  temperatures into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A distant Nor'Easter brings hazardous marine 
conditions, with gusty northeast breezes over land through
Thursday. Other than some light rain showers on Wednesday in 
southeast New England, dry weather otherwise prevails. 

Nor'Easter located well offshore (well south of 40N/70W) will  
continue to slowly meander nearly in place through most of
Wednesday, then gradually peel off toward the NE and ENE later
on Wednesday and into the waters south of the Canada Maritimes
Thursday. Meanwhile, an expansive area of high pressure
continues to govern much of New England with sunny skies, but is 
driving a tight NE gradient bringing breezy to gusty conditions,
with the strongest gusts (35-40 mph) closer to Cape Cod and 
Nantucket. 

There remains no major changes to the forecast, messaging and  
projected impacts from this system specific to Southern New
England. The main impacts continue to be primarily over the 
southern/southeast waters with building rough seas and gale-
force winds, with some beach erosion to east-facing beach 
exposures. Over land, the main impacts continue to be breezy to 
gusty northeast winds, in particular for southeast New England. 
These gusts should again fall into the 20-25 mph range over the 
interior, but reach into the 25-35 mph range for most of the 
coastal plain away from Cape Cod, and could gust up to 40 mph 
for Nantucket. Guidance does show more in the way of cloud cover
for Wednesday and Thursday for the southeast New England 
coastal plain, with light rain showers as well, but there ends 
up being several hours of dry weather in between. Best chance 
for rain ends up being on Wednesday, as the circulation pulls 
away and a reinforcing shot of cooler air as high pressure 
builds back southward into Thursday. 

Expect plentiful sunshine away from the coasts, with seasonably
mild days (upper 50s to lower 60s) and cool nights (mid 30s to
low 40s). Near the eastern and southeast coasts, cloud cover 
and stiff onshore breezes will result in a narrower range in 
temperatures, with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s, and highs in 
the mid to mid/upper 50s. It will feel a bit cooler with the 
northerly breezes though.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Prolonged stretch of dry weather Friday into
early next week, except for a brief risk of showers across the
eastern coastal waters Friday morning. Cooler Friday, followed 
by moderating temperatures into early next week.

Once the nor'easter departs farther offshore, a large high
pressure over eastern Canada takes over. This high pressure
shifts south across the Northeast, reaching the central
Appalachians by Monday. Friday looks to be the coldest day of
this portion of the forecast, followed by a warming trend this
weekend into at least Monday. Some question as to how quickly a
cold front moves past our region Monday night into Tuesday. At
present, Tuesday looks like we'll be on the colder side of this
front. However, this timing is not locked in yet.

Much of this portion of the forecast will remain dry. The only
exception will be a chance for showers across the eastern
coastal waters as a weak surface trough associated with the
nor'easter south of the Maritimes passes by. Even then, much of
this time will be dry across those waters.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tonight: High confidence. 

VFR. Potential exists for lower-end VFR ceilings to arrive by
the pre-dawn hours, thinking it will now be slightly later
Wednesday morning. North to northeast winds gusting to 25-35 kt 
for the Cape and Islands terminals, but remaining around 20-25 
kt elsewhere. Gusts should run about 5 kt lighter tonight with 
less mixing. 

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: High confidence, though moderate 
on rain shower coverage in southeast New England. 

Low clouds (VFR/fringe-MVFR range) and possible light -RA for  
the Cape airports through this period, although visibilities
will not be restricted and rain may not be necessarily
persistent with dry periods in between. Away from the Cape and
Islands, SCT-BKN VFR decks prevail to I-95, with decreasing
cloudiness further into the interior. NE winds resume around
25-35 kt for the Cape and Islands, and around 20-25 kt over
land. Gusts then decrease around 5 kt or so for the evening.
  
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. 

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. 

Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday through Sunday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday Night: High confidence.

Dangerous boating conditions will persist into early Thursday,
in particular for the southern waters, with rough seas building 
offshore to nearly 15 ft and E to NE winds of up to 40 kt. Gale 
Warnings have been extended through 12z Thursday for the
southern waters. Small Craft Advisories extended through the
same timeframe into the northeast waters, although gusts should 
be more commonly in the 25-30 kt range for these locations. Rain
showers become more persistent into Wednesday for the southeast
waters.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft. 

Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
13 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. 

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. 

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. 

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>235-237-
     254>256-281>283.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ250-251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/Loconto
AVIATION...Belk/Loconto
MARINE...Belk/Loconto