Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 230218 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1018 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will result in dry weather through Tuesday with pleasant days and chilly frosty nights, along with elevated fire weather potential. Widespread showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will develop Wednesday as a cold front moves into the region, followed by drying and unseasonably chilly temperatures Wednesday night. Large high pressure will build into the region Thursday through Saturday bringing dry weather with moderating temperatures Friday and Saturday. The next chance of showers will be Saturday night into Sunday as a frontal system approaches. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Update: 10:00PM Forecast continues as advertised. A Frost Advisory remains in effect tonight for Rhode Island, and portions of Massachusetts and Connecticut as overnight lows are expected to fall to the low 30s - not out of the question areas that are well know to radiate fall into the upper 20s! Those upper 20s are likely to be the exception than the rule, have opted out from issuing a Freeze Warning. That said, those with spring plants that have bloomed, should take precautions tonight to ensure the cold does not kill off the early blooms and bring inside any potted plants that may be outside on front steps or patios. During this update did blend in the latest biased corrected CONSMOS which highlighted "good radiator", as such did lower overnight temperature by a few degrees in places like Taunton and the I-495 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure moves off the Eastern Seaboard for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Dry weather continues Tuesday with a persistent southerly wind. This should result in near normal temperatures for late April through Tuesday night. Our next chance for showers is anticipated to be late Tuesday night as a front approaches from the west. It is more likely these showers will impact the western half of southern New England by the Wednesday morning commute. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Points... * Widespread showers Wed and possibly an isolated t-storm, then drying and cold Wed night with freezing temps * Dry Thu through Sat. Cool Thu then milder Fri-Sat * Chance of showers Sat night and Sun Wednesday and Wednesday night... A robust mid level trough and cold front will swing through New Eng Wed afternoon. Ahead of the front, a modest low level jet will transport PWATs 0.75-1" into SNE. Modest forcing for ascent combined with increasing deep layer moisture will result in numerous showers moving through Wed morning into early afternoon, then fropa will be followed by drying late in the day from west to east. Cold pool aloft assocd with the mid level trough will steepen mid level lapse rates with 7-8 C/km lapse rates in the 700-500 mb layer and Total Totals rising into the 50s. Not much SB instability present, but decent forcing combined with steepening mid level lapse rates suggest potential for a few t-storms. Very dry post-frontal airmass moves in Wed night with PWATs dropping to near 0.10". Rapid clearing Wed night with gusty NW winds in the evening diminishing overnight. Cold night for late April with widespread lows in the 20s in the interior and low 30s near the coast. Frost/Freeze headlines will likely be needed. Thursday through Saturday... Large high pres builds into New Eng Thu and persists into Sat bringing dry weather with sunny days and clear nights. Below normal temps Thu with freezing temps likely again late Thu night interior, then temps gradually moderate Fri and Sat to near seasonable normals. Regarding fire weather conditions for Thu, it will be rather dry with RH values dropping to 20-30 percent, but winds will be less of a concern as the high pres builds in with winds generally less than 15 mph. Saturday night into Monday... Mid level warm front moves into the region Sat night followed by the surface warm front Sunday. Moisture is increasing which will lead to chance of showers, although forcing for ascent is limited as upper ridge builds into the region. Then mostly dry for Monday but will have to watch a potential backdoor front. Above normal temps expected Sun-Mon but how warm it gets will be dependent on cloud cover and location of the surface boundary. Interesting that GEFS and ECMWF ensembles both have moderate to high probs of >70F and 20- 30% probs of >80F for next Mon. Wide range in temp outcomes for Sun and especially Mon with the warmer outcomes dependent on backdoor front remaining to the north which is uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF update...no changes Through Tuesday...High confidence. VFR. Light S winds develop overnight increasing to 10-20 kt Tue afternoon. Tuesday Night...High confidence. Mainly VFR through the night. MVFR/IFR cigs should develop from west to east across the western half of southern New England after midnight. -SHRA increasing from west to east as well. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday Night...High Confidence. High pressure moving off the Eastern Seaboard tonight into Tuesday will result in rather light winds and seas across the waters. Good visibility. Increasing risk for showers late Tuesday night. Increasing south winds may lead to rough seas across the outer coastal waters late Tuesday night. However, do not have enough confidence in the timing for a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Thursday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday... There will be elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday. Given that we are in a pre-greenup and a very dry atmosphere is in control, expecting minimum afternoon relative humidities to drop to between 20 and 30 percent. Winds will be from the south with some gusts again of 15 to 20 mph. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ002>004. MA...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for MAZ013-016>023. RI...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for RIZ001>008. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/KJC NEAR TERM...Belk/Dooley SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...Belk/KJC MARINE...Belk/KJC FIRE WEATHER...Belk
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