Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Mostly cloudy
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 101715
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
115 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes. Becoming more confident that any minor river 
flooding will not occur until Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record warmth gives way to cooler weather by end of the week with
  rain/snow showers possible late Friday or Friday night.

- Potential for strong winds and heavy rain later Sunday and
  Monday which may lead to minor river flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Record warmth gives way to cooler weather by end of 
the week with rain/snow showers possible late Friday or Friday night.

Watching the climate sites for record highs this afternoon:

- Worcester (ORH) reached 69 and broke the record of 67 in 2020.
- Hartford (BDL) reached 71 and is close to the record of 72  
  in 2016.
- Boston (BOS) has struggled due to a sea breeze but we should
  see winds shift to SW this afternoon which will boost the 
  temperature quickly. That should challenge one of the few long
  standing records that dates back to 1878 (71 degrees).
- Providence (PVD) has a sea breeze but may see a temperature
  jump later as well. Record high is 72 in 2016.

All good things must come to an end and that includes our taste of 
unseasonably warm weather, although temperatures should still 
average above normal Wednesday and Thursday. We're watching a 
backdoor cold front that will drop south through New England
early Wednesday and exactly where it ends up will be the 
difference between cooler, damp weather and cloudy but somewhat 
milder conditions. 

Latest high-res guidance brings front through central/eastern 
MA and northern RI where temperatures should drop into upper 30s
and lower 40s along with drizzle and patchy fog from onshore 
flow, while to the south across much of CT, it should be cloudy 
but somewhat milder with temperatures in the 40s to around 50. 

This front should advance back northward late in day Wednesday and 
Wednesday night, so in the cool sector temperatures should rise 
during night. Upper trough moving through eastern Great Lakes 
will bring a stronger cold front through region early Thursday 
morning, bringing with it a few showers and the arrival of 
colder air in its wake. A weak and fast moving low is expected 
to cross New England later Friday into early Saturday, 
accompanied by rain or snow showers, with any snow more favored 
in western/central MA, but with minimal accumulation.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for strong winds and heavy rain later
Sunday and Monday which may lead to minor river flooding.

Even though melting snow has brought increased river and stream 
flows, we don't see much of a flood concern until Monday with the 
arrival of potentially heavy rainfall and strong winds. Rises on
mainstem Connecticut River this weekend should remain below
flood stage.

Ensemble situational awareness tables indicate the potential for a 
highly anomalous event in terms of rainfall and strong winds, with 
several wind and moisture parameters above the 90th percentile and 
in some cases near the max of model climate. This is ahead of a more 
amplified upper trough which will bring strong southerly flow and 
deep moisture into southern New England resulting in a widespread 
and potentially heavy rainfall event along with a brief surge of 
warmth.

Probabilities for 1"+ of rain are currently centered more across CT, 
RI, and SE MA, and as a result ensemble river forecasts show the 
potential for minor flooding beginning Monday along the Pawtuxet, 
Pawcatuck, and Wood Rivers in RI and perhaps along the lower reaches 
of the mainstem Connecticut River from Hartford through Middle 
Haddam.

It's tough to mix down strong winds this time of year with southerly 
flow events, but areas that are usually favored are the immediate 
South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Assuming we have a strong 
inversion, which is typical in March, we can estimate gusts taking 
about 50% of 925 mb winds. GFS shows a peak of 70-75kt Mon morning 
which would yield 35-40kt gusts and Gales on the coastal waters. 

Behind a strong cold front, we look to be in for another brief surge 
of cold with below average temperatures in the 30s Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update: High confidence.

VFR with SW flow today and early tonight.

Near Cape Cod and Islands, IFR/LIFR returns later this afternoon
through early tonight and persists all night. Elsewhere, MVFR 
and IFR cigs develop overnight as backdoor front drops south and
brings a wind shift to E/NE. Some improvement during day Wed to
MVFR ceilings which slowly lift further Wed night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy. 

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA, chance SN.

Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Sunday: Breezy. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through the weekend.

Main concern through Wed is dense fog during the nighttime and 
morning hours, especially on south coastal waters. Also need to be 
aware of the backdoor front dropping south Wed morning which will 
bring an abrupt wind shift to NE on E MA waters, if not into 
Narragansett Bay, with brief 20-25kt gusts possible.

Looking at a fairly active pattern starting Wed night with SCA winds 
and seas probable into Friday and then again over weekend. As 
mentioned in the discussion above, we're getting more confident in 
southerly Gales Monday with possible gusts up to 40kt.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. 

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. 

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. 

Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of rain. 

Saturday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough
seas. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWD
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD