Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 250006
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
806 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cool this weekend overall but some light rain 
possible across CT and near South Coast.

- Unsettled pattern develops for the middle and end of next week 
with showers from time to time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and cool this weekend with onshore winds but 
some light rain can't be ruled out across CT and near South Coast.

Blocky pattern persists into the weekend as we remain sandwiched 
between closed low over Maritimes and ridging over Great Lakes. 
Although mainly dry weather will prevail, closed low will eventually 
pull far enough away to allow a weak short wave and surface low to 
pass just south of New England, potentially bringing some light rain 
to portions of western MA, CT, and perhaps the South Coast as well 
later Saturday into Sunday.

We're now getting into window of high-res guidance which shows a 
sharp cutoff on northern edge of precip shield, something to be 
expected when we have confluent flow aloft over our region and 
surface high pressure just to our north, allowing drier air at lower 
levels to move in despite onshore flow. Consensus shows best chances 
of seeing at least some light rain along and SW of a line from 
Pittsfield, MA to Hartford, CT and Newport, RI. We did note 12z 3km 
NAM brings it a little farther north, as does 12z GFS, both of which 
weaken surface ridge a bit more. If this trend continues we may have 
to expand chance PoPs into these areas as well.

Also of note is 12z NAM wants to close off the short wave near Cape 
Cod Monday, something it has shown for a couple of runs, but now it 
does so a little more offshore. Don't see a lot of support for this 
solution in ensemble cluster analysis which shows more of an 
open wave, but this could end up keeping at least clouds and 
stronger NE winds near Cape Cod and Islands should it come to 
pass, if not lingering showers.

Of course it wouldn't be late April in southern New England without 
still having to assess precipitation type. Temperature profiles look 
marginal at best for some wet snow across the hills of northern CT 
which can be seen in 3km/12km NAM ptype forecasts, but it certainly 
can't be ruled out, especially if it occurs Saturday night. At this 
point we don't see any real accumulation other than perhaps a 
coating on grass in some locations. 


KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled pattern develops for the middle and end of 
next week with showers from time to time.

High pressure will dominate early next week with dry weather and 
near average temperatures, though continued onshore flow will keep 
coastal areas on the cool side given ocean temperatures are still in 
the 40s.

Pattern undergoes a change during mid to late week as upper ridge 
gives way to broad upper trough over Northeast, perhaps evolving 
into a closed low that stays in place for several days. Either way, 
this signals a change to a wetter pattern with clouds and periods of 
showers as a series of weak low pressure systems moves through the 
northern tier of states, but this does not have the look of any 
excessive rainfall. If the closed low solution ends up verifying, 
temperatures will run a bit cooler than what we have forecast right 
now (probably a bit below normal) but that is highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update: High confidence.

VFR with E/NE winds through Saturday night, except SE during
seabreazes Saturday afternoon. Expect scattered showers to 
arrive later Saturday or more likely Saturday night with local 
MVFR ceilings and visibilities, mainly SW of a line from PSF-
BDL-UUU.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, patchy FG.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Patchy FG.

Monday Night: VFR. 

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

High confidence through this weekend.

High pressure to our north will maintain light E/NE winds and calm 
seas through the weekend. Weak low pressure passing south of New 
England Sunday could bring marginal SCA conditions to southern outer 
waters with winds nearing 25kt and seas 5 ft early next week.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, patchy
fog. 

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Widespread fog, slight chance of
rain showers. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of rain showers. 

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance
of rain showers. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWD
AVIATION...McMinn/JWD
MARINE...JWD