Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 201800
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine headlines (gale warnings and small craft advisories) have
been extended through Wednesday night. Gusty northeast winds and
rough seas continue. Otherwise no significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A distant Nor'Easter brings hazardous marine conditions, with
  gusty northeast breezes over land through Thursday. Other 
  than some light rain showers on Wednesday in southeast New 
  England, dry weather otherwise prevails. 

- Prolonged stretch of dry weather Friday into early next week,
  except for a brief risk of showers across the eastern coastal
  waters Friday morning. Cooler Friday, followed by moderating
  temperatures into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A distant Nor'Easter brings hazardous marine 
conditions, with gusty northeast breezes over land through
Thursday. Other than some light rain showers on Wednesday in 
southeast New England, dry weather otherwise prevails. 

Nor'Easter located well offshore (well south of 40N/70W) will 
continue to slowly meander nearly in place through most of 
Wednesday, then gradually peel off toward the NE and ENE later on 
Wednesday and into the waters south of the Canada Maritimes 
Thursday. Meanwhile, an expansive area of high pressure continues to 
govern much of New England with sunny skies, but is driving a tight 
NE gradient bringing breezy to gusty conditions, with the strongest 
gusts (35-40 mph) closer to Cape Cod and Nantucket. 

There remains no major changes to the forecast, messaging and 
projected impacts from this system specific to Southern New England. 
The main impacts continue to be primarily over the 
southern/southeast waters with building rough seas and gale-force 
winds, with some beach erosion to east-facing beach exposures. Over 
land, the main impacts continue to be breezy to gusty northeast 
winds, in particular for southeast New England. These gusts should 
again fall into the 20-25 mph range over the interior, but reach 
into the 25-35 mph range for most of the coastal plain away from 
Cape Cod, and could gust up to 40 mph for Nantucket. Guidance does 
show more in the way of cloud cover for Wednesday and Thursday for 
the southeast New England coastal plain, with light rain showers as 
well, but there ends up being several hours of dry weather in 
between. Best chance for rain ends up being on Wednesday, as the 
circulation pulls away and a reinforcing shot of cooler air as high 
pressure builds back southward into Thursday. 

Expect plentiful sunshine away from the coasts, with seasonably mild 
days (upper 50s to lower 60s) and cool nights (mid 30s to low 40s). 
Near the eastern and southeast coasts, cloud cover and stiff onshore 
breezes will result in a narrower range in temperatures, with lows 
in the mid 40s to low 50s, and highs in the mid to mid/upper 50s. It 
will feel a bit cooler with the northerly breezes though.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Prolonged stretch of dry weather Friday into
early next week, except for a brief risk of showers across the
eastern coastal waters Friday morning. Cooler Friday, followed 
by moderating temperatures into early next week.

Once the nor'easter departs farther offshore, a large high
pressure over eastern Canada takes over. This high pressure
shifts south across the Northeast, reaching the central
Appalachians by Monday. Friday looks to be the coldest day of
this portion of the forecast, followed by a warming trend this
weekend into at least Monday. Some question as to how quickly a
cold front moves past our region Monday night into Tuesday. At
present, Tuesday looks like we'll be on the colder side of this
front. However, this timing is not locked in yet.

Much of this portion of the forecast will remain dry. The only
exception will be a chance for showers across the eastern
coastal waters as a weak surface trough associated with the
nor'easter south of the Maritimes passes by. Even then, much of
this time will be dry across those waters.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Through Tonight: High confidence. 

VFR. Potential exists for lower-end VFR ceilings to arrive by
the pre-dawn hours, but this could slip into Wednesday morning. North
to northeast winds gusting to 25-35 kt for the Cape and Islands
terminals, but remaining around 20-25 kt elsewhere. Gusts 
should run about 5 kt lighter tonight with less mixing. 

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: High confidence, though moderate
on rain shower coverage in southeast New England. 

Low clouds (VFR/fringe-MVFR range) and possible light -RA 
for the Cape airports through this period, although visibilities
will not be restricted and rain may not be necessarily
persistent with dry periods in between. Away from the Cape and
Islands, SCT-BKN VFR decks prevail to I-95, with decreasing
cloudiness further into the interior. NE winds resume around
25-35 kt for the Cape and Islands, and around 20-25 kt over
land. Gusts then decrease around 5 kt or so for the evening. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. 

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. 

Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday through Sunday: VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday Night: High confidence.

Dangerous boating conditions will persist into early on
Thursday in particular for the southern waters, with rough seas
building offshore to nearly 15 ft and E to NE winds of up to 40
kt. Gale Warnings have been extended through 12z Thursday for 
the southern waters. Small Craft Advisories extended through the
same timeframe into the northeast waters, although gusts should
be more commonly in the 25-30 kt range for these locations. 
Rain showers become more persistent into Wednesday for the 
southeast waters.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt.
Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain showers. 

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft. 

Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to
13 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. 

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. 

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. 

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>235-237-
     254>256-281>283.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ250-251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Belk/Loconto
AVIATION...Belk/Loconto
MARINE...Belk/Loconto