Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

35°F

2/16/2025 7:17pm

Lexington Conditions: Clear
Temperature: 35.1°F / 1.7°C
Dew Point: 32.4°F
Relative Humidity: 90%
Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
Barometer: 29.00 in Falling Slowly
Visibility: 10 miles
Rain Today: 0.01 in
UV Index: $VPuv None

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 251733
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1233 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore today with a warm front bringing a 
period of rain from late this afternoon into tonight followed by 
mild weather with scattered showers Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
A strong cold front sweeps across the region Wednesday night with 
colder and blustery conditions following for Thanksgiving Day. Windy 
and cold weather Friday and Saturday, then moderating temperatures 
with risk of showers late Sunday into Monday as a frontal system 
approaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Dry to start with increasing clouds. Widespread light rain arrives 
  by late afternoon into the evening. 

Winds have calmed this morning as the center of high pressure passes 
just to our south. This high is on its way east and will continue in 
that trajectory today, soon replaced by a trough of low pressure 
ahead of which we'll see increasing warm southerly flow. This warm 
front lifts north today bringing with it increasing mid and high 
clouds and eventually widespread isentropically forced 
precipitation. Model guidance, however, indicates a very dry layer 
between 950-750mb which will take a while to saturate, so while rain 
chances will be on the increase from west to east this 
afternoon/evening, wet weather likely doesn't arrive until late the 
late afternoon or evening. This also pushes temperatures several 
degrees above normal, in the mid 50s. Stratiform showers overnight 
likely drop between a quarter and half inch of rain before exiting 
early Wednesday morning as the core of a LLJ shifts offshore and 
frontal forcing lifts north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Widespread showers end early but scattered rain showers continue 
  through the day.

* Well above average temperatures. 

Placed within the warm sector, SNE will see temperatures well above 
normal for late November, in the upper 50s to near 60 in spots! The 
cold front is slow to arrive, not until after 8pm, so lots of 
lingering moisture will mean the continued chance of scattered 
showers on Wednesday as the shortwave approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Blustery and turning colder late Wednesday night and Thursday.

* Windy and cold Friday into Saturday.

* Becoming unsettled late Sunday into Monday with moderating temps.

Overall looking at a quiet and benign stretch for the Thanksgiving 
holiday. The issue of note will be the cold and wind Thursday into 
the start of the weekend as Wednesday night's cold front ushers in a 
much cooler post frontal airmass. This cold advection leads to 
efficient mixing down of a 35-45 kt LLJ starting Thursday and 
peaking Friday into Saturday. Thus, we can expect wind gusts of 20-
30 mph on Thursday, perhaps as high as 30-40 mph on Friday when the 
low level jet peaks. Saturday winds come down but remain breezy. 
Meanwhile, a much colder airmass is overhead so these winds will 
make highs in the 30s and low 40s on Friday feel like the 20s and 
low 30s. Overall a dry stretch, though can't rule out a stray shower 
on Friday given the trough/cold pool aloft. By the start of next 
week we're tracking the potential for a pattern change bringing the 
return of unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z update...

Rest of Today

Overcast VFR with modest south/southwest winds around 10 knots.
Some 20+ knot gusts near the coast. -RA/RA moves in from west to
east between 21-00Z along with MVFR ceilings.

Tonight...High Confidence in Trends

MVFR ceilings and RA overspread the region after 00Z. Ceilings
eventually fall to IFR/LIFR between 03-06Z with MVFR/IFR vsbys
in RA. 

Tomorrow...High confidence in trends, moderate in timing


RA comes to an end by 12Z. Additional scattered showers possible
for much of the day tomorrow, but most terminals stay dry,
especially after 18Z. IFR persist through tomorrow afternoon
with some improvements to VFR/MVFR ceilings possible by 00Z

Tomorrow Night... High Confidence

Cold front crosses the region tomorrow and clears skies from
west to east between 00 and 06Z. WInds shift to the
west from 10 to 15 knots with some 25 knot gusts possible near
the coast. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Expect RA at BOS between 00-02Z with condition deteriorating to
IFR by 06Z. Possible we see some further deterioration to LIFR
if an onshore flow develops, but right now thinking
south/southwest winds should fend off ceilings below 500 feet.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/... 

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Thanksgiving Day through Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. 

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Wednesday... High confidence.

* Small Craft Advisory for all southern waters starting Tuesday 
  night. 

* Potential for westerly Gale Force conditions Thursday afternoon 
  through early Saturday across all waters.

Wind shifts to the southwest on Tuesday with gusts less than 20 
knots across all waters and seas between 2 and 4 feet until seas 
increase over the southern waters, 4-6 ft Tuesday night. 

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/... 

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. 

Thanksgiving Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. 

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft. 

Friday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to
13 ft. Slight chance of rain. 

Friday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft. 

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for 
     ANZ230-236.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning 
     for ANZ231-250-251-254.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday 
     for ANZ232>235-237-254>256.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for 
     ANZ232>235-237-255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...Belk/BW
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/RM
MARINE...BW