Old Res Weather

Lexington, Massachusetts, USA

46°F
3/28/2024 5:39am 
  • Lexington Conditions: Rain, Mist, Overcast
  • Temperature: 46.4°F / 8.0°C 
  • Dew Point: 43.9°F 
  • Relative Humidity: 91
  • Wind: Calm, 10-min avg: Calm, gust: None
  • Barometer: 30.04 in Steady
  • Visibility: 3 miles
  • Rain Today: 0.12 in
  • UV Index: $VPuv None
  •   

Area Forecast Discussion
for Boston / Norton, MA

        
000
FXUS61 KBOX 241917
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
317 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry Monday but windy along the coast, especially Cape and 
Islands. Unsettled weather pattern for Tuesday through Friday. 
Periods of light rain showers for eastern New England on 
Tuesday, then widespread light showers for Wednesday. A better 
chance at widespread steadier rains may then develop Thursday 
and Friday as coastal low pressure moves closer to Southern New 
England. Turning blustery and drier for Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

Fortunately for those in eastern MA/RI clouds have cleared this 
afternoon, though if you're on Cape Cod you remain stuck under 
stubborn high clouds. This moisture sticks around tonight as do 
these gusty winds thanks to our proximity to a low well east of the 
Carolinas. This will keep winds gusting 30 to 40 mph along the coast 
(especially southeast MA) tonight with seas 10-12 ft. Lows dip into 
the teens in the high terrain of western/northern MA but will be 
closer to freezing for coastal locations in a well mixed boundary 
layer. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Monday stays dry as that coastal low well to our south sits nearly 
stationary or retrogrades in response to a broad high pressure 
center over Nova Scotia. This keeps winds gusty on Monday, gusting 
30-40 mph again (strongest along the coast). The only location that 
stands the chance of seeing some rain Monday night will be Cape Cod 
as some guidance brings the low close enough for peripheral moisture 
to move onshore from the east in the form of light rain showers. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Highlights: 

* Overcast with onshore breezes and periods of light rain showers 
  Tue with best chances at light showers eastern half of Southern 
  New England. Temps cooler than normal. 

* Milder Wed but with showers at times.

* Unsettled Thurs and Fri with rain showers brought by a stalling 
  front and low pressure moving on it. 

* Dry and blustery Sat. 

Details:

Overall a pretty unsettled pattern through the rest of the workweek, 
with several chances at clouds and at least light showers. Greater 
rain chances develop later in the week although the exact details 
are still a bit unclear. 

Tuesday and Wednesday: 

Distant coastal low pressure still expected to bring an enhanced 
onshore flow and spread a blanket of low clouds and light showers on 
Tue, especially for central and eastern sections of SNE. Coastal 
breezes with NE/E wind gusts around 25-30 mph. Leftover though 
weakening sfc ridge axis over western MA and portions of CT should 
supply enough subsidence to limit chances for light showers. Better 
chances for widespread lighter showers takes place Tue night and 
especially into Wed as this moisture interacts with a slow-moving 
frontal system. Still, QPF amts are on the light side. Considerable 
cloudiness, periods of rain and shallow mixing supports highs in the 
mid to upper 40s on Tue, and in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s for 
Wed.  

Thursday through Friday Night:

Frontal boundary then stalls near SNE or just offshore, and 
continued moisture acting on this frontal boundary to focus 
additional rain chances into Thurs. There is indication later Thurs 
and continuing into Fri that vort energy coming out of the 
southeastern states will enhance rain chances. Carried high chance 
to low likely PoP starting late Thurs into Fri. What is less agreed 
upon is the location and track of an area of low pressure around the 
Carolinas with varied depictions in the global models on its how 
strong it develops and where it tracks. That would influence how 
much rain we do see and when will rain shift offshore. GFS and ECMWF 
have similar depictions, with low pressure well offshore Fri and Fri 
night and rain chances ending by Fri night. The Canadian GEM has a 
considerably stronger low that is also closer to New England and 
would bring greater impacts in terms of both rain and winds, but 
looking at ensembles, it seems to be more of an outlier outcome at 
this point.  
  
Saturday: 

High pressure develops into Sat leading to dry weather. However 
pocket of colder air aloft and a pretty tight NW gradient flow could 
favor a blustery day. 

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High- greater than 60 percent. 

18Z update...

This afternoon through Monday night...High confidence.

VFR. Expecting a lull in gusts this afternoon/evening but 
another round of 25-35kt gusts is expected overnight into Mon. 
Otherwise, VFR through Monday night.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. 

KBDL TAF...High confidence.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... 

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 35 kt. Chance RA, slight chance FZRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA, chance FZRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
RA.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA.

Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA
likely.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
up to 30 kt. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: Low pressure developing to the south will increase gusts 
and seas. NE winds 20-35 kts gusting 35 to 40 kts with seas 
increasing to 12-14 ft. 

Monday: Low pressure system moves north and continues gusty NE gales 
on the southern and eastern outer waters. Northeast waters gusts 
near 30 knots. Seas on the outer waters are greater than 14 feet, 
near shore waves are 6 to 10 feet.

Monday night: Low pressure to our south will continue to bring
strong NE winds 20-30 kts gusting to 40 kts. Seas on the outer
waters 11 to 14 feet. 

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.
Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain. 

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.
Chance of rain. 

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of rough seas. Chance of rain. 

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. 

Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 30 kt.
Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain likely. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236-
     237-250-251.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for 
     ANZ232>235.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/BW
MARINE...Loconto/BW
      

Other recent Area Forecast Discussions

Thu Mar 28, 4:52am EDT

Thu Mar 28, 2:44am EDT

Wed Mar 27, 9:58pm EDT

Wed Mar 27, 7:34pm EDT

Wed Mar 27, 4:23pm EDT

Wed Mar 27, 10:22am EDT

Wed Mar 27, 7:24am EDT

Wed Mar 27, 3:35am EDT

Wed Mar 27, 1:51am EDT

Tue Mar 26, 9:57pm EDT

Tue Mar 26, 7:52pm EDT

Tue Mar 26, 9:52am EDT

Tue Mar 26, 7:08am EDT

Tue Mar 26, 5:47am EDT

Tue Mar 26, 2:11am EDT

Mon Mar 25, 9:48pm EDT

Mon Mar 25, 7:23pm EDT

Mon Mar 25, 3:18pm EDT

Mon Mar 25, 1:29pm EDT

Mon Mar 25, 9:45am EDT

Mon Mar 25, 9:09am EDT

Mon Mar 25, 6:55am EDT

Mon Mar 25, 3:29am EDT

Mon Mar 25, 1:28am EDT

Sun Mar 24, 10:23pm EDT

Sun Mar 24, 7:31pm EDT

Sun Mar 24, 1:16pm EDT

Sun Mar 24, 9:51am EDT

Sun Mar 24, 7:22am EDT

Sun Mar 24, 3:30am EDT

Sat Mar 23, 10:13pm EDT

Sat Mar 23, 7:33pm EDT

Sat Mar 23, 7:19pm EDT

Sat Mar 23, 3:25pm EDT

Sat Mar 23, 1:22pm EDT

Sat Mar 23, 10:16am EDT

Sat Mar 23, 7:03am EDT

Sat Mar 23, 3:58am EDT

Sat Mar 23, 1:29am EDT

Fri Mar 22, 10:21pm EDT

Fri Mar 22, 7:41pm EDT

Fri Mar 22, 4:10pm EDT

Fri Mar 22, 3:59pm EDT

Fri Mar 22, 1:44pm EDT

Fri Mar 22, 9:51am EDT

Fri Mar 22, 7:06am EDT

Fri Mar 22, 4:06am EDT

Thu Mar 21, 10:06pm EDT

Thu Mar 21, 7:37pm EDT

Thu Mar 21, 4:45pm EDT

Thu Mar 21, 3:52pm EDT

Thu Mar 21, 1:32pm EDT

Thu Mar 21, 7:23am EDT