Lexington, Massachusetts, USA
000 FXUS61 KBOX 241917 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 317 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry Monday but windy along the coast, especially Cape and Islands. Unsettled weather pattern for Tuesday through Friday. Periods of light rain showers for eastern New England on Tuesday, then widespread light showers for Wednesday. A better chance at widespread steadier rains may then develop Thursday and Friday as coastal low pressure moves closer to Southern New England. Turning blustery and drier for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Fortunately for those in eastern MA/RI clouds have cleared this afternoon, though if you're on Cape Cod you remain stuck under stubborn high clouds. This moisture sticks around tonight as do these gusty winds thanks to our proximity to a low well east of the Carolinas. This will keep winds gusting 30 to 40 mph along the coast (especially southeast MA) tonight with seas 10-12 ft. Lows dip into the teens in the high terrain of western/northern MA but will be closer to freezing for coastal locations in a well mixed boundary layer. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Monday stays dry as that coastal low well to our south sits nearly stationary or retrogrades in response to a broad high pressure center over Nova Scotia. This keeps winds gusty on Monday, gusting 30-40 mph again (strongest along the coast). The only location that stands the chance of seeing some rain Monday night will be Cape Cod as some guidance brings the low close enough for peripheral moisture to move onshore from the east in the form of light rain showers. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights: * Overcast with onshore breezes and periods of light rain showers Tue with best chances at light showers eastern half of Southern New England. Temps cooler than normal. * Milder Wed but with showers at times. * Unsettled Thurs and Fri with rain showers brought by a stalling front and low pressure moving on it. * Dry and blustery Sat. Details: Overall a pretty unsettled pattern through the rest of the workweek, with several chances at clouds and at least light showers. Greater rain chances develop later in the week although the exact details are still a bit unclear. Tuesday and Wednesday: Distant coastal low pressure still expected to bring an enhanced onshore flow and spread a blanket of low clouds and light showers on Tue, especially for central and eastern sections of SNE. Coastal breezes with NE/E wind gusts around 25-30 mph. Leftover though weakening sfc ridge axis over western MA and portions of CT should supply enough subsidence to limit chances for light showers. Better chances for widespread lighter showers takes place Tue night and especially into Wed as this moisture interacts with a slow-moving frontal system. Still, QPF amts are on the light side. Considerable cloudiness, periods of rain and shallow mixing supports highs in the mid to upper 40s on Tue, and in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s for Wed. Thursday through Friday Night: Frontal boundary then stalls near SNE or just offshore, and continued moisture acting on this frontal boundary to focus additional rain chances into Thurs. There is indication later Thurs and continuing into Fri that vort energy coming out of the southeastern states will enhance rain chances. Carried high chance to low likely PoP starting late Thurs into Fri. What is less agreed upon is the location and track of an area of low pressure around the Carolinas with varied depictions in the global models on its how strong it develops and where it tracks. That would influence how much rain we do see and when will rain shift offshore. GFS and ECMWF have similar depictions, with low pressure well offshore Fri and Fri night and rain chances ending by Fri night. The Canadian GEM has a considerably stronger low that is also closer to New England and would bring greater impacts in terms of both rain and winds, but looking at ensembles, it seems to be more of an outlier outcome at this point. Saturday: High pressure develops into Sat leading to dry weather. However pocket of colder air aloft and a pretty tight NW gradient flow could favor a blustery day. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. 18Z update... This afternoon through Monday night...High confidence. VFR. Expecting a lull in gusts this afternoon/evening but another round of 25-35kt gusts is expected overnight into Mon. Otherwise, VFR through Monday night. KBOS TAF...High confidence. KBDL TAF...High confidence. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA, slight chance FZRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA, chance FZRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight: Low pressure developing to the south will increase gusts and seas. NE winds 20-35 kts gusting 35 to 40 kts with seas increasing to 12-14 ft. Monday: Low pressure system moves north and continues gusty NE gales on the southern and eastern outer waters. Northeast waters gusts near 30 knots. Seas on the outer waters are greater than 14 feet, near shore waves are 6 to 10 feet. Monday night: Low pressure to our south will continue to bring strong NE winds 20-30 kts gusting to 40 kts. Seas on the outer waters 11 to 14 feet. Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/... Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain. Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely. Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely. Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain likely. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ230-231-236- 237-250-251. Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ232>235. Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Loconto/BW NEAR TERM...BW SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...Loconto AVIATION...Loconto/BW MARINE...Loconto/BW
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